The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting on March 18, 2026, as February CPI inflation remained at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory amid a resilient labor market with unemployment edging to 4.4%. Updated dot plots signal trader consensus for just one rate cut in 2026, down from prior expectations, reflecting heightened uncertainty from geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices and sticky services inflation. CME FedWatch Tool implies low near-term cut probabilities, with 10-year Treasury yields stable around recent levels. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where fresh economic data could shift rate path pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,179,831 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
2%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
29%
Réunion de septembre
40%
Réunion d'octobre
50%
Réunion de décembre
62%
$1,179,831 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
2%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
29%
Réunion de septembre
40%
Réunion d'octobre
50%
Réunion de décembre
62%
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting on March 18, 2026, as February CPI inflation remained at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory amid a resilient labor market with unemployment edging to 4.4%. Updated dot plots signal trader consensus for just one rate cut in 2026, down from prior expectations, reflecting heightened uncertainty from geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices and sticky services inflation. CME FedWatch Tool implies low near-term cut probabilities, with 10-year Treasury yields stable around recent levels. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where fresh economic data could shift rate path pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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