Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for near-term Fed rate cuts following the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, as Chair Powell highlighted stalled inflation progress amid Middle East geopolitical risks. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, while core PCE inflation ticked to 3.1% in January, exceeding the 2% target; labor softened with unemployment rising to 4.4% and 92,000 jobs lost, though weekly claims remain stable near 210,000. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting and March CPI release on April 10 loom as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations versus the dot plot's projection of one 2026 cut to low-3% levels by 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,206,517 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
2%
Réunion de juin
10%
Réunion de juillet
29%
Réunion de septembre
40%
Réunion d'octobre
47%
Réunion de décembre
55%
$1,206,517 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
2%
Réunion de juin
10%
Réunion de juillet
29%
Réunion de septembre
40%
Réunion d'octobre
47%
Réunion de décembre
55%
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for near-term Fed rate cuts following the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, as Chair Powell highlighted stalled inflation progress amid Middle East geopolitical risks. February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, while core PCE inflation ticked to 3.1% in January, exceeding the 2% target; labor softened with unemployment rising to 4.4% and 92,000 jobs lost, though weekly claims remain stable near 210,000. The April 28-29 FOMC meeting and March CPI release on April 10 loom as key catalysts that could shift rate path expectations versus the dot plot's projection of one 2026 cut to low-3% levels by 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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