Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report that added 178,000 jobs—tripling consensus estimates of 60,000—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. This resilience tempers easing expectations amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and oil price shocks pressuring price growth, consistent with the Fed's March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting one cut later in 2026. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April FOMC policy statement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,276,710 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
43%
Réunion d'octobre
55%
Réunion de décembre
64%
$1,276,710 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
43%
Réunion d'octobre
55%
Réunion de décembre
64%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the robust March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report that added 178,000 jobs—tripling consensus estimates of 60,000—while unemployment dipped to 4.3% and average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. This resilience tempers easing expectations amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and oil price shocks pressuring price growth, consistent with the Fed's March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting one cut later in 2026. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April FOMC policy statement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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