Robust US economic indicators, including October CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and a blockbuster November jobs report adding 227,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.2%, have entrenched 76% market-implied odds for Fed pauses in March, May, and June meetings. Sticky core inflation near 3.3% and resilient consumer spending signal to traders that the Fed will hold rates around 4.25-4.50% post-recent cuts, prioritizing inflation control over premature easing. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (16.5%) reflect CME FedWatch alignment, but December FOMC projections and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric underscore low near-term cut risks absent recession signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 77%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 16%
Autre 6.2%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.3%
$985,833 Vol.
$985,833 Vol.
Pause–pause–pause
77%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
16%
Autre
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
1%
Pause–pause–pause 77%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 16%
Autre 6.2%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.3%
$985,833 Vol.
$985,833 Vol.
Pause–pause–pause
77%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
16%
Autre
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
1%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Robust US economic indicators, including October CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and a blockbuster November jobs report adding 227,000 payrolls with unemployment steady at 4.2%, have entrenched 76% market-implied odds for Fed pauses in March, May, and June meetings. Sticky core inflation near 3.3% and resilient consumer spending signal to traders that the Fed will hold rates around 4.25-4.50% post-recent cuts, prioritizing inflation control over premature easing. Secondary outcomes like a June cut (16.5%) reflect CME FedWatch alignment, but December FOMC projections and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric underscore low near-term cut risks absent recession signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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