Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters dominates trader consensus at 93% implied probability to win California's 50th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index established after voters approved Proposition 50's Democratic-favorable redistricting in November 2025. Peters' recent February re-election announcement, combined with $2.5 million cash on hand from December filings and a 64% victory margin in 2024, far outpaces Republican challenger Steve Cohen—a former TV news director who entered the race March 13 with no reported fundraising. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the race's lack of competitiveness ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset advancing a stronger GOP contender, a Peters scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-50
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-50
$18,281 Vol.
$18,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
93%
Parti républicain
7%
$18,281 Vol.
$18,281 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$13,332 Vol.
93%
Parti républicain
$4,949 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters dominates trader consensus at 93% implied probability to win California's 50th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index established after voters approved Proposition 50's Democratic-favorable redistricting in November 2025. Peters' recent February re-election announcement, combined with $2.5 million cash on hand from December filings and a 64% victory margin in 2024, far outpaces Republican challenger Steve Cohen—a former TV news director who entered the race March 13 with no reported fundraising. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the race's lack of competitiveness ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset advancing a stronger GOP contender, a Peters scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,281Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters dominates trader consensus at 93% implied probability to win California's 50th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index established after voters approved Proposition 50's Democratic-favorable redistricting in November 2025. Peters' recent February re-election announcement, combined with $2.5 million cash on hand from December filings and a 64% victory margin in 2024, far outpaces Republican challenger Steve Cohen—a former TV news director who entered the race March 13 with no reported fundraising. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the race's lack of competitiveness ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset advancing a stronger GOP contender, a Peters scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,281Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Scott Peters dominates trader consensus at 93% implied probability to win California's 50th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index established after voters approved Proposition 50's Democratic-favorable redistricting in November 2025. Peters' recent February re-election announcement, combined with $2.5 million cash on hand from December filings and a 64% victory margin in 2024, far outpaces Republican challenger Steve Cohen—a former TV news director who entered the race March 13 with no reported fundraising. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball underscore the race's lack of competitiveness ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset advancing a stronger GOP contender, a Peters scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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