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Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26

Market icon
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26

$18,066 Vol.

Polymarket

$18,066 Vol.

Parti démocrate

$9,092 Vol.

94%

Parti républicain

$8,974 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement has not disrupted trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5%, driven by the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+9 and 56% Democratic presidential vote in 2024—along with historical double-digit Democratic general election margins. A crowded Democratic primary field including state Sen. Jacqui Irwin faces four Republicans, led in fundraising by Samuel Gallucci, ahead of the June 2 top-two primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. Ratings from Cook (Solid Democratic), Sabato (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning. Upsets remain possible via Republican primary consolidation yielding a general election contender, a weak Democratic nominee from infighting, or a national GOP midterm wave.

The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement has not disrupted trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5%, driven by the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+9 and 56% Democratic presidential vote in 2024—along with historical double-digit Democratic general election margins. A crowded Democratic primary field including state Sen. Jacqui Irwin faces four Republicans, led in fundraising by Samuel Gallucci, ahead of the June 2 top-two primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. Ratings from Cook (Solid Democratic), Sabato (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning. Upsets remain possible via Republican primary consolidation yielding a general election contender, a weak Democratic nominee from infighting, or a national GOP midterm wave.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement has not disrupted trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5%, driven by the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+9 and 56% Democratic presidential vote in 2024—along with historical double-digit Democratic general election margins. A crowded Democratic primary field including state Sen. Jacqui Irwin faces four Republicans, led in fundraising by Samuel Gallucci, ahead of the June 2 top-two primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. Ratings from Cook (Solid Democratic), Sabato (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning. Upsets remain possible via Republican primary consolidation yielding a general election contender, a weak Democratic nominee from infighting, or a national GOP midterm wave.

The open seat in California's 26th Congressional District following Rep. Julia Brownley's January retirement has not disrupted trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 93.5%, driven by the district's strong partisan lean—Cook PVI D+9 and 56% Democratic presidential vote in 2024—along with historical double-digit Democratic general election margins. A crowded Democratic primary field including state Sen. Jacqui Irwin faces four Republicans, led in fundraising by Samuel Gallucci, ahead of the June 2 top-two primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. Ratings from Cook (Solid Democratic), Sabato (Safe Democratic), and Inside Elections reinforce this positioning. Upsets remain possible via Republican primary consolidation yielding a general election contender, a weak Democratic nominee from infighting, or a national GOP midterm wave.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, suivi de « Parti républicain » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 94¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26 » a généré $18.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26 » est « Parti démocrate » à 94%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 94% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti républicain » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-26 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.