Democratic trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 69.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong early fundraising—raising over $700,000 in his first three weeks and outraising incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) by 3-to-1 through late 2025—coupled with the DCCC adding VA-05 to its Districts in Play on February 10, 2026. McGuire announced his re-election bid on February 13 amid a crowded Republican primary field, including challenger Chris Lucero, while multiple Democrats like Perriello, Krzyzanowski, and Tracinski compete in the August 4 primaries. Midterm dynamics and the district's history of competitive races further elevate flip potential despite its Republican lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
$17,370 Vol.
$17,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
69%
Parti républicain
27%
$17,370 Vol.
$17,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$7,277 Vol.
69%
Parti républicain
$10,093 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 69.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong early fundraising—raising over $700,000 in his first three weeks and outraising incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) by 3-to-1 through late 2025—coupled with the DCCC adding VA-05 to its Districts in Play on February 10, 2026. McGuire announced his re-election bid on February 13 amid a crowded Republican primary field, including challenger Chris Lucero, while multiple Democrats like Perriello, Krzyzanowski, and Tracinski compete in the August 4 primaries. Midterm dynamics and the district's history of competitive races further elevate flip potential despite its Republican lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 69.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong early fundraising—raising over $700,000 in his first three weeks and outraising incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) by 3-to-1 through late 2025—coupled with the DCCC adding VA-05 to its Districts in Play on February 10, 2026. McGuire announced his re-election bid on February 13 amid a crowded Republican primary field, including challenger Chris Lucero, while multiple Democrats like Perriello, Krzyzanowski, and Tracinski compete in the August 4 primaries. Midterm dynamics and the district's history of competitive races further elevate flip potential despite its Republican lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 69.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by former Rep. Tom Perriello's strong early fundraising—raising over $700,000 in his first three weeks and outraising incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R) by 3-to-1 through late 2025—coupled with the DCCC adding VA-05 to its Districts in Play on February 10, 2026. McGuire announced his re-election bid on February 13 amid a crowded Republican primary field, including challenger Chris Lucero, while multiple Democrats like Perriello, Krzyzanowski, and Tracinski compete in the August 4 primaries. Midterm dynamics and the district's history of competitive races further elevate flip potential despite its Republican lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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