Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 78.5% in Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, primarily due to building momentum for the April 21 constitutional amendment referendum allowing legislative redistricting of congressional maps before the November general election. Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning toward the measure, boosting expectations that the Democratic-controlled General Assembly could redraw the rural district—stretching from Charlottesville to Danville—into a more competitive battleground. Democrats have fielded strong recruits like former Rep. Tom Perriello, who leads fundraising, while Republican incumbent John McGuire faces a potential August 4 primary challenge from ex-Rep. Bob Good. Early voting turnout favors GOP strongholds, but markets weigh redistricting as the pivotal shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
$20,464 Vol.
$20,464 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
79%
Parti républicain
20%
$20,464 Vol.
$20,464 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$9,398 Vol.
79%
Parti républicain
$11,066 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 78.5% in Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, primarily due to building momentum for the April 21 constitutional amendment referendum allowing legislative redistricting of congressional maps before the November general election. Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning toward the measure, boosting expectations that the Democratic-controlled General Assembly could redraw the rural district—stretching from Charlottesville to Danville—into a more competitive battleground. Democrats have fielded strong recruits like former Rep. Tom Perriello, who leads fundraising, while Republican incumbent John McGuire faces a potential August 4 primary challenge from ex-Rep. Bob Good. Early voting turnout favors GOP strongholds, but markets weigh redistricting as the pivotal shift.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$20,464Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 78.5% in Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, primarily due to building momentum for the April 21 constitutional amendment referendum allowing legislative redistricting of congressional maps before the November general election. Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning toward the measure, boosting expectations that the Democratic-controlled General Assembly could redraw the rural district—stretching from Charlottesville to Danville—into a more competitive battleground. Democrats have fielded strong recruits like former Rep. Tom Perriello, who leads fundraising, while Republican incumbent John McGuire faces a potential August 4 primary challenge from ex-Rep. Bob Good. Early voting turnout favors GOP strongholds, but markets weigh redistricting as the pivotal shift.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,464Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic victory at 78.5% in Virginia's 5th Congressional District House race, primarily due to building momentum for the April 21 constitutional amendment referendum allowing legislative redistricting of congressional maps before the November general election. Recent George Mason University/Washington Post polling shows 52% of likely voters supporting or leaning toward the measure, boosting expectations that the Democratic-controlled General Assembly could redraw the rural district—stretching from Charlottesville to Danville—into a more competitive battleground. Democrats have fielded strong recruits like former Rep. Tom Perriello, who leads fundraising, while Republican incumbent John McGuire faces a potential August 4 primary challenge from ex-Rep. Bob Good. Early voting turnout favors GOP strongholds, but markets weigh redistricting as the pivotal shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes