Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of England base rate hold at 100.0% for the March 20 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation pressures that have tempered cut expectations. Headline CPI eased to 2.8% in January but services inflation lingers near 5%, exceeding the 2% target, while wage growth at 5.2% signals persistent demand. Weak Q4 GDP contraction of 0.3% adds caution, as policymakers prioritize anchoring inflation amid global uncertainties like U.S. policy shifts. This positioning could unwind if February CPI (released March 19) surprises lower or labor data softens dramatically, prompting a dovish pivot toward a 25 bps cut with odds below 0.2%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en mars ?
Décision de la Banque d'Angleterre en mars ?
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$129,865 Vol.
$129,865 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
Non
Aucun changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$129,865 Vol.
$129,865 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
Non
Aucun changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's March 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 3:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of England base rate hold at 100.0% for the March 20 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation pressures that have tempered cut expectations. Headline CPI eased to 2.8% in January but services inflation lingers near 5%, exceeding the 2% target, while wage growth at 5.2% signals persistent demand. Weak Q4 GDP contraction of 0.3% adds caution, as policymakers prioritize anchoring inflation amid global uncertainties like U.S. policy shifts. This positioning could unwind if February CPI (released March 19) surprises lower or labor data softens dramatically, prompting a dovish pivot toward a 25 bps cut with odds below 0.2%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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