Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability for Audemars Piguet secondary market prices hitting the $100,000 threshold for the Royal Oak 41mm steel by April 30, driven primarily by a 25% year-to-date decline in average resale values on Chrono24, now hovering around $85,000 amid softening luxury demand. High interest rates and reduced spending from high-net-worth individuals in China—accounting for 40% of global watch sales—exacerbate the downtrend, while increased authorized dealer allocations have shortened waitlists and curbed gray-market premiums. Watches and Wonders (April 23-29) could introduce new supply catalysts, but macroeconomic headwinds like persistent Fed tightening favor further price compression unless equity rallies boost trader risk appetite.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWill Audemars Piguet prices hit __ by April 30?
Will Audemars Piguet prices hit __ by April 30?
↑ $44,000
2%
↑ $43,000
10%
↑ $42,500
13%
↑ $42,250
28%
↑ $42,000
52%
↑ $41,750
54%
↑ $41,500
92%
↓ $41,000
16%
↓ $40,750
17%
↓ $40,500
15%
↓ $40,250
14%
↓ $40,000
13%
↓ $39,000
7%
$7,598 Vol.
↑ $44,000
2%
↑ $43,000
10%
↑ $42,500
13%
↑ $42,250
28%
↑ $42,000
52%
↑ $41,750
54%
↑ $41,500
92%
↓ $41,000
16%
↓ $40,750
17%
↓ $40,500
15%
↓ $40,250
14%
↓ $40,000
13%
↓ $39,000
7%
The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution.
This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”.
This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a low implied probability for Audemars Piguet secondary market prices hitting the $100,000 threshold for the Royal Oak 41mm steel by April 30, driven primarily by a 25% year-to-date decline in average resale values on Chrono24, now hovering around $85,000 amid softening luxury demand. High interest rates and reduced spending from high-net-worth individuals in China—accounting for 40% of global watch sales—exacerbate the downtrend, while increased authorized dealer allocations have shortened waitlists and curbed gray-market premiums. Watches and Wonders (April 23-29) could introduce new supply catalysts, but macroeconomic headwinds like persistent Fed tightening favor further price compression unless equity rallies boost trader risk appetite.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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