Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to President Trump not issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, driven by over 15 months of inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her repeated clemency appeals. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed in March 2026 she continues seeking relief for her 20-year federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein, following her February deposition where she pleaded the Fifth but offered full testimony if granted clemency—a move sparking Democratic accusations of campaigning and a Senate resolution opposing any pardon. Trump, who in October 2025 vaguely said he would "look at" it, has granted dozens of pardons to political allies like January 6 defendants but shows no intent here amid bipartisan backlash and high political costs. Recent DOJ leadership shifts, including Pam Bondi's April 2026 departure, have fueled speculation but no confirmed action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$532,596 Vol.
$532,596 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$532,596 Vol.
$532,596 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to President Trump not issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, driven by over 15 months of inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her repeated clemency appeals. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed in March 2026 she continues seeking relief for her 20-year federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein, following her February deposition where she pleaded the Fifth but offered full testimony if granted clemency—a move sparking Democratic accusations of campaigning and a Senate resolution opposing any pardon. Trump, who in October 2025 vaguely said he would "look at" it, has granted dozens of pardons to political allies like January 6 defendants but shows no intent here amid bipartisan backlash and high political costs. Recent DOJ leadership shifts, including Pam Bondi's April 2026 departure, have fueled speculation but no confirmed action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$532,596End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to President Trump not issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, driven by over 15 months of inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her repeated clemency appeals. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed in March 2026 she continues seeking relief for her 20-year federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein, following her February deposition where she pleaded the Fifth but offered full testimony if granted clemency—a move sparking Democratic accusations of campaigning and a Senate resolution opposing any pardon. Trump, who in October 2025 vaguely said he would "look at" it, has granted dozens of pardons to political allies like January 6 defendants but shows no intent here amid bipartisan backlash and high political costs. Recent DOJ leadership shifts, including Pam Bondi's April 2026 departure, have fueled speculation but no confirmed action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$532,596End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to President Trump not issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, driven by over 15 months of inaction since his January 2025 inauguration despite her repeated clemency appeals. Maxwell's lawyer confirmed in March 2026 she continues seeking relief for her 20-year federal sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein, following her February deposition where she pleaded the Fifth but offered full testimony if granted clemency—a move sparking Democratic accusations of campaigning and a Senate resolution opposing any pardon. Trump, who in October 2025 vaguely said he would "look at" it, has granted dozens of pardons to political allies like January 6 defendants but shows no intent here amid bipartisan backlash and high political costs. Recent DOJ leadership shifts, including Pam Bondi's April 2026 departure, have fueled speculation but no confirmed action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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