Name: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Start: 2025-09-06T21:07:27.582053Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

March 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

January 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

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Market News Update

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No Activity Reported

No significant events or updates have been reported in the analyzed data. The absence of notable activity suggests a period of stability or lack of major influencing factors at this time.

Donald Trump has openly threatened a military invasion of Venezuela, escalating tensions with plans for potential ground attacks and strikes on drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean. International leaders, including Pope Leo and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, have condemned the threats, urging the U.S. to avoid intervention and sparking widespread opposition across Latin America.

Trump Threatens Venezuela Invasion

NOBODY seriously believes the invasion of Venezuela is about drugs.

The entire global drug trade is controlled by the CIA &amp; MI6.

The US regime barely disguises its intentions. After Gaza, there's no point in even pretending to have morals.

And that's also why they're now so

BREAKING: Pope Leo SMACKS DOWN Trump’s talk about war with Venezuela, and tells America to drop the invasion plans and ditch the fearmongering against immigrants. 

In a stunning mid-air reality check, Pope Leo — the first American pope in history — just delivered a moral https://t.co/ZHX6lfDipu

#DebateARCHI2025 | Jeannette Jara: "Lo que hace Trump es anunciar una invasión militar a Venezuela. En vez de terminar un conflicto, lo que hará es generar un nuevo conflicto. Eso pasa con los gobiernos autoritarios, y yo con eso no estoy de acuerdo"

📡https://t.co/RHKHcuZanU https://t.co/DxMYoAMFWE

#Tendencia ☝️ "Los grandes narcos no van en lanchas por el caribe , sino que van a las mismas fiestas que Trump": Irene Montero

Irene Montero, eurodiputada, confronta a #Trump y denuncia como inadmisibles sus amenazas de invasión militar a Venezuela.

¿Tú qué opinas? https://t.co/rltqmYOqtV

No a la invasión y agresión militar yanqui a Venezuela ! https://t.co/euppsxnref

🚨New: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says she fully supports Venezuela and rejects any U.S. military intervention in Venezuela

She said: “We support Venezuela in the face of US aggression” https://t.co/raK3S5kM2S

Without a credible threat of the use of military force, nothing changes in Venezuela. When it comes to Maduro, the time for talking is closing. The time for action to end this reign of terror in Venezuela is upon us.

I would urge the Holy Father to be on the right side of

Prediction: 
 *US Military strikes on Venezuela military installations by January or February 2026
 * Maduro assassination / Armed Conflict by March 2026

This will coincide with the 2003 Iraqi Invasion which happened on March 20th 2003. 

Trump would never start a war during

🇨🇱🇺🇸🇻🇪 | Jeannette Jara, candidata presidencial comunista de Chile, y la situación de Venezuela:

"Es grave y critica... Es una dictadura, pero la solución que propone Trump me parece muy incorrecta, viola el derecho internacional y no voy a amparar la invasión de otro país". https://t.co/JSU95aytoo

Massive ‘NO US WAR ON VENEZUELA, NO BLOOD FOR OIL’ Billboard Drops in Times Square

The majority of Americans oppose U.S. military operations in Venezuela🇻🇪 https://t.co/ge6mQRdEYo

Rubio convinced Trump that they could scare @NicolasMaduro into leaving Venezuela with the military buildup, the terrorist label, the psyops, etc, but they have underestimated him and the situation inside Venezuela (as the US has done historically).

Abby Martin: “The fossil fuel companies have an army, &amp; that army is the US military. &amp; US imperialism is a machinery that imposes global capitalism against the planet at the barrel of a gun... like what Trump's doing in Venezuela, it's just so laid bare what this is all about.” https://t.co/mYaz0TSnJb

Lo de Trump es inadmisible y decadente...amenazar con bombardear Colombia y Venezuela debería generar el rechazo inmediato de todo el continente. Latinoamerica es y ha sido zona de paz. Una invasión imperialista traerá caos y violencia que nos afectará a todos. No lo permitamos https://t.co/JJSnJltXu5

🚨Update: El Presidente Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela has tightened his personal security, including changing beds, and leaned on Cuba, a key ally, amid a growing threat of a US military intervention in the country, according to multiple people close to the Venezuelan government. https://t.co/XbS2szKm48

US troops joined Panamanian forces for a jungle survival and air-evacuation drill as tensions with Venezuela continue to escalate. The drills come as Washington ramps up military activity in the Caribbean and carries out strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats. https://t.co/7THk167stW

🇺🇸🇧🇷🇻🇪⚡- A Brazilian warship currently travelling eastwards along the coast of Venezuela, The vessel, via its radar, is capable of picking up the locations of all US military vessels in the area. https://t.co/J6wBoUBEtQ

Trump amenaza ya con la invasión terrestre de Venezuela

 “Vamos a empezar con los ataques por tierra" afirmó ayer en una comparecencia en la que también cargó contra Colombia.
https://t.co/it1grs955M

Pope Leo called on the US to avoid military intervention in Venezuela to oust President Nicolas Maduro, emphasizing the need to calm the situation for the benefit of the people https://t.co/Alsu9Vigoo https://t.co/1tmykXEK0X

#DebateARCHI2025 | José Antonio Kast por posible invasión de Trump a Venezuela: "Le respondo con la frase de nuestro escudo: por la razón o la fuerza"

📡https://t.co/RHKHcuZanU
💻https://t.co/Ox6C5F6K3w https://t.co/8Tl76gmfRW

'There's every chance that we'll wake up tomorrow to the news of an invasion...'
 
@JonSopel goes through the 'worrying' evidence that Donald Trump is planning something big in Venezuela. https://t.co/I4DdWMVxZR

The message from the United States is clear: if the US pursues a military solution to taming Venezuela, then it will win.

But what's the real goal?

Read more here 👇
https://t.co/2ftWsGWGHw https://t.co/mHI2zwZ6jd

The United States is carrying out strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and has positioned military assets that could potentially support an invasion of Venezuela. 

It remains unclear whether the Trump administration is considering such a move. https://t.co/WxlnKNIEi6

I told @correio that Maduro's resignation depends much more on the internal power dynamics in Venezuela, especially the role of the military and the fissures within Chavismo, than on an external threat. The US may intensify the pressure, but the key remains within the country. https://t.co/GKUBLiAm5H

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The lack of specific information limits the ability to assess current market influences or key developments.

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no detailed summary of social media activity or related market events can be generated. Please provide relevant tweets or content to enable a comprehensive analysis of the situation.

Market Event Summary

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

December 31, 2025
$2,114,965 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

January 31, 2026
$3,561 Vol.
9%

March 31, 2026
$133,568 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Rules

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Market Context

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

About

Related

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

December 31, 2025$2,114,965 Vol.5%0123456789%buy Yes6.1¢buy No95.8¢

January 31, 2026$3,561 Vol.9%buy Yes9¢buy No92¢

March 31, 2026$133,568 Vol.15%0123456789%buy Yes15¢buy No86¢

Market Context

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Rules

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Market Context

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

About

Related

December 31, 2025
$2,114,965 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

January 31, 2026
$3,561 Vol.
9%

March 31, 2026
$133,568 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%