Name: Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?
Start: 2024-02-27T00:12:57.212Z
End: 2024-02-27T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to 'Yes' if flight controllers lose communication with the NASA-sponsored Odysseus lunar lander, nicknamed 'Odie,' by February 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If 'Odie' maintains communication beyond February 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'No.'

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Intuitive Machines or NASA regarding the communication status with 'Odie.' However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Cloudflare may classify as Critical.

Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.

If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?

The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?

Market Context

Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?

Rules

Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?

Market Context

Will Odysseus Lander lose communication by Feb 27?

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