
Climate & Weather
$540,290 Bet
Expires Dec 31, 2023
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher)
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher)
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa...Resolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/g...Contract
0x439342f3C8...Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Resolution
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