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Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?

icon for Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?

Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,042 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$33,042 Vol.

On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country. Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.

On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country.

Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.
Volume
$33,042
End Date
Aug 16, 2024
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2024, 10:26 PM ET
On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country. Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country. Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.

On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country.

Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.
Volume
$33,042
End Date
Aug 16, 2024
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2024, 10:26 PM ET
On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country. Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?" has generated $33K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 12, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.