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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Market icon

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Avengers: Doomsday 85%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 7%

Dune: Messiah 2.5%

Toy Story 5 1.8%

Polymarket

$1,372,140 Vol.

Avengers: Doomsday 85%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 7%

Dune: Messiah 2.5%

Toy Story 5 1.8%

Polymarket

$1,372,140 Vol.

Avengers: Doomsday

$100,574 Vol.

85%

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

$28,022 Vol.

7%

Dune: Messiah

$81,922 Vol.

3%

Toy Story 5

$174,455 Vol.

2%

The Odyssey

$136,865 Vol.

2%

Michael

$483,963 Vol.

2%

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$2,721 Vol.

1%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

$29,223 Vol.

1%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$55,669 Vol.

1%

Project Hail Mary

$88,221 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at an 84.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, propelled by Marvel's track record of record-shattering debuts—like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million—and the Russo brothers' direction alongside Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom, positioning it as the year's tentpole event film on December 18 despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Recent insider reports from late March affirm Disney's confidence in its billion-dollar potential, even sans full IMAX rollout, reinforcing market positioning amid steady pre-release buzz from January teasers. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 7% after its March trailer smashed viewership records at 718 million in 24 hours, signaling strong summer prospects on July 31, but faces stiffer franchise competition. Family fare like Toy Story 5 (June 19) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1 debut) linger low at 1.8% and 1.4% due to softer opening trajectories versus superhero spectacle, with tracking updates and full trailers ahead as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,372,140
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at an 84.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, propelled by Marvel's track record of record-shattering debuts—like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million—and the Russo brothers' direction alongside Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom, positioning it as the year's tentpole event film on December 18 despite clashing with Dune: Messiah. Recent insider reports from late March affirm Disney's confidence in its billion-dollar potential, even sans full IMAX rollout, reinforcing market positioning amid steady pre-release buzz from January teasers. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 7% after its March trailer smashed viewership records at 718 million in 24 hours, signaling strong summer prospects on July 31, but faces stiffer franchise competition. Family fare like Toy Story 5 (June 19) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1 debut) linger low at 1.8% and 1.4% due to softer opening trajectories versus superhero spectacle, with tracking updates and full trailers ahead as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,372,140
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Dune 3

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Avengers: Doomsday" at 85%, followed by "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" is "Avengers: Doomsday" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.