President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, but subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, or low-yield hydronuclear work rather than full nuclear detonations. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with annual stockpile stewardship certifications confirming no technical requirement for resumption. Low implied probabilities reflect the time needed to prepare the Nevada National Security Site, ongoing diplomatic and verification concerns tied to the CTBT framework, and the absence of any confirmed explosive test through September 2026. Key upcoming factors include any further policy clarifications or budget decisions on National Nuclear Security Administration testing infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$796,544 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
5%
$796,544 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$58,803 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$76,930 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, but subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, or low-yield hydronuclear work rather than full nuclear detonations. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with annual stockpile stewardship certifications confirming no technical requirement for resumption. Low implied probabilities reflect the time needed to prepare the Nevada National Security Site, ongoing diplomatic and verification concerns tied to the CTBT framework, and the absence of any confirmed explosive test through September 2026. Key upcoming factors include any further policy clarifications or budget decisions on National Nuclear Security Administration testing infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$796,544End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, but subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, or low-yield hydronuclear work rather than full nuclear detonations. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with annual stockpile stewardship certifications confirming no technical requirement for resumption. Low implied probabilities reflect the time needed to prepare the Nevada National Security Site, ongoing diplomatic and verification concerns tied to the CTBT framework, and the absence of any confirmed explosive test through September 2026. Key upcoming factors include any further policy clarifications or budget decisions on National Nuclear Security Administration testing infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$796,544End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, but subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, or low-yield hydronuclear work rather than full nuclear detonations. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, with annual stockpile stewardship certifications confirming no technical requirement for resumption. Low implied probabilities reflect the time needed to prepare the Nevada National Security Site, ongoing diplomatic and verification concerns tied to the CTBT framework, and the absence of any confirmed explosive test through September 2026. Key upcoming factors include any further policy clarifications or budget decisions on National Nuclear Security Administration testing infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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