Trader consensus prices modest turnout of 0.6–1.5 million voters in the May 26 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton at 28.5% each, down sharply from the March 3 primary's record 2.16 million GOP ballots fueled by multiple competitive races. This positioning reflects historical runoff patterns, where participation often drops 50% or more due to voter fatigue, fewer ballot contests, and May timing amid end-of-school-year schedules. Recent Quantus Insights polling (March 21–22) showing Paxton leading 49%–41% sustains base enthusiasm on both sides, while President Trump's pending endorsement and escalating campaign spending keep estimates clustered. A Trump nod or superior grassroots mobilization could boost turnout toward higher buckets before the April 27 voter registration deadline and May 18–22 early voting window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTurnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
1.2–1.5M 32%
0.6–0.9M 28%
2.4–2.7M 24.0%
1.8–2.1M 16%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
10%
0.6–0.9M
28%
0.9–1.2M
23%
1.2–1.5M
32%
1.5–1.8M
14%
1.8–2.1M
16%
2.1–2.4M
15%
2.4–2.7M
13%
2.7M+
8%
1.2–1.5M 32%
0.6–0.9M 28%
2.4–2.7M 24.0%
1.8–2.1M 16%
NEW
NEW
May 26, 2026
<0.6M
$0 Vol.
10%
0.6–0.9M
$0 Vol.
28%
0.9–1.2M
$0 Vol.
23%
1.2–1.5M
$3,693 Vol.
32%
1.5–1.8M
$0 Vol.
14%
1.8–2.1M
$0 Vol.
16%
2.1–2.4M
$0 Vol.
15%
2.4–2.7M
$0 Vol.
13%
2.7M+
$0 Vol.
8%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus prices modest turnout of 0.6–1.5 million voters in the May 26 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton at 28.5% each, down sharply from the March 3 primary's record 2.16 million GOP ballots fueled by multiple competitive races. This positioning reflects historical runoff patterns, where participation often drops 50% or more due to voter fatigue, fewer ballot contests, and May timing amid end-of-school-year schedules. Recent Quantus Insights polling (March 21–22) showing Paxton leading 49%–41% sustains base enthusiasm on both sides, while President Trump's pending endorsement and escalating campaign spending keep estimates clustered. A Trump nod or superior grassroots mobilization could boost turnout toward higher buckets before the April 27 voter registration deadline and May 18–22 early voting window.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$3,693End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus prices modest turnout of 0.6–1.5 million voters in the May 26 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton at 28.5% each, down sharply from the March 3 primary's record 2.16 million GOP ballots fueled by multiple competitive races. This positioning reflects historical runoff patterns, where participation often drops 50% or more due to voter fatigue, fewer ballot contests, and May timing amid end-of-school-year schedules. Recent Quantus Insights polling (March 21–22) showing Paxton leading 49%–41% sustains base enthusiasm on both sides, while President Trump's pending endorsement and escalating campaign spending keep estimates clustered. A Trump nod or superior grassroots mobilization could boost turnout toward higher buckets before the April 27 voter registration deadline and May 18–22 early voting window.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$3,693End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices modest turnout of 0.6–1.5 million voters in the May 26 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton at 28.5% each, down sharply from the March 3 primary's record 2.16 million GOP ballots fueled by multiple competitive races. This positioning reflects historical runoff patterns, where participation often drops 50% or more due to voter fatigue, fewer ballot contests, and May timing amid end-of-school-year schedules. Recent Quantus Insights polling (March 21–22) showing Paxton leading 49%–41% sustains base enthusiasm on both sides, while President Trump's pending endorsement and escalating campaign spending keep estimates clustered. A Trump nod or superior grassroots mobilization could boost turnout toward higher buckets before the April 27 voter registration deadline and May 18–22 early voting window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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