Polymarket traders price a 48% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.4%, alongside persistent Middle East tensions over the Strait of Hormuz that pressured recent sessions despite brief de-escalation hopes. Major firms have trimmed targets—Wells Fargo to 7,300 from 7,800 and JPMorgan to 7,200 from 7,500—citing inflation stickiness near 3.25% annualized and the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, tempering earnings growth projections to 12-15%. Current levels near 6,580 underscore limited upside conviction, with key catalysts including April nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and May FOMC ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<$6,000 48%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$7,000-$7,500 16%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$16,190 Vol.
$16,190 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
48%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
18%
$7,000-$7,500
16%
$7,500-$8,000
6%
>$8,000
5%
<$6,000 48%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$7,000-$7,500 16%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$16,190 Vol.
$16,190 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$10,104 Vol.
48%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,119 Vol.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,302 Vol.
18%
$7,000-$7,500
$704 Vol.
16%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,438 Vol.
6%
>$8,000
$1,523 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 48% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.4%, alongside persistent Middle East tensions over the Strait of Hormuz that pressured recent sessions despite brief de-escalation hopes. Major firms have trimmed targets—Wells Fargo to 7,300 from 7,800 and JPMorgan to 7,200 from 7,500—citing inflation stickiness near 3.25% annualized and the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, tempering earnings growth projections to 12-15%. Current levels near 6,580 underscore limited upside conviction, with key catalysts including April nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and May FOMC ahead.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$16,190End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 48% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.4%, alongside persistent Middle East tensions over the Strait of Hormuz that pressured recent sessions despite brief de-escalation hopes. Major firms have trimmed targets—Wells Fargo to 7,300 from 7,800 and JPMorgan to 7,200 from 7,500—citing inflation stickiness near 3.25% annualized and the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, tempering earnings growth projections to 12-15%. Current levels near 6,580 underscore limited upside conviction, with key catalysts including April nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and May FOMC ahead.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$16,190End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 48% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.4%, alongside persistent Middle East tensions over the Strait of Hormuz that pressured recent sessions despite brief de-escalation hopes. Major firms have trimmed targets—Wells Fargo to 7,300 from 7,800 and JPMorgan to 7,200 from 7,500—citing inflation stickiness near 3.25% annualized and the Federal Reserve's pause at 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, tempering earnings growth projections to 12-15%. Current levels near 6,580 underscore limited upside conviction, with key catalysts including April nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and May FOMC ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions