Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a narrow contest for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December close, with <$23,500 holding a slim 50.5% implied probability over >$36,000 at 43.3%, as recent volatility underscores competing recession risks versus AI-fueled upside. NDX rallied 1.8% to 25,842 on April 14—its best weekly gain of 2026—exiting correction territory amid de-escalating oil prices below $100 and tempered Iran tensions, yet current levels near 25,100 remain vulnerable to persistent 3.5%-3.75% Fed funds rate. Key swing factors include upcoming April 28-29 FOMC for rate-cut signals and Q1 tech earnings expecting 24% growth; robust AI capex from hyperscalers could validate bull targets around 30,000-35,000 per analysts, while misses or sticky inflation may trigger the downside retest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,500-$25,000 80%
$26,500-$28,500 45%
$30,500-$33,000 42%
$33,000-$36,000 42%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
53%
$23,500-$25,000
80%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
45%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
42%
$33,000-$36,000
42%
>$36,000
47%
$23,500-$25,000 80%
$26,500-$28,500 45%
$30,500-$33,000 42%
$33,000-$36,000 42%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 Vol.
53%
$23,500-$25,000
$0 Vol.
80%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Vol.
41%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Vol.
45%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Vol.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Vol.
42%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Vol.
42%
>$36,000
$42 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a narrow contest for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December close, with <$23,500 holding a slim 50.5% implied probability over >$36,000 at 43.3%, as recent volatility underscores competing recession risks versus AI-fueled upside. NDX rallied 1.8% to 25,842 on April 14—its best weekly gain of 2026—exiting correction territory amid de-escalating oil prices below $100 and tempered Iran tensions, yet current levels near 25,100 remain vulnerable to persistent 3.5%-3.75% Fed funds rate. Key swing factors include upcoming April 28-29 FOMC for rate-cut signals and Q1 tech earnings expecting 24% growth; robust AI capex from hyperscalers could validate bull targets around 30,000-35,000 per analysts, while misses or sticky inflation may trigger the downside retest.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$42End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a narrow contest for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December close, with <$23,500 holding a slim 50.5% implied probability over >$36,000 at 43.3%, as recent volatility underscores competing recession risks versus AI-fueled upside. NDX rallied 1.8% to 25,842 on April 14—its best weekly gain of 2026—exiting correction territory amid de-escalating oil prices below $100 and tempered Iran tensions, yet current levels near 25,100 remain vulnerable to persistent 3.5%-3.75% Fed funds rate. Key swing factors include upcoming April 28-29 FOMC for rate-cut signals and Q1 tech earnings expecting 24% growth; robust AI capex from hyperscalers could validate bull targets around 30,000-35,000 per analysts, while misses or sticky inflation may trigger the downside retest.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$42End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a narrow contest for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December close, with <$23,500 holding a slim 50.5% implied probability over >$36,000 at 43.3%, as recent volatility underscores competing recession risks versus AI-fueled upside. NDX rallied 1.8% to 25,842 on April 14—its best weekly gain of 2026—exiting correction territory amid de-escalating oil prices below $100 and tempered Iran tensions, yet current levels near 25,100 remain vulnerable to persistent 3.5%-3.75% Fed funds rate. Key swing factors include upcoming April 28-29 FOMC for rate-cut signals and Q1 tech earnings expecting 24% growth; robust AI capex from hyperscalers could validate bull targets around 30,000-35,000 per analysts, while misses or sticky inflation may trigger the downside retest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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