Russia maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1990 and has repeatedly conditioned any resumption on similar U.S. action, most recently reaffirmed in September 2026 statements by Foreign Minister Lavrov supporting CTBT entry into force and by the Foreign Ministry citing President Putin's November 2025 pledge of compliance absent reciprocal moves by other states. Delivery system tests, including Sarmat ICBM launches and Burevestnik cruises, have continued without crossing into full-yield nuclear detonations. Trader consensus assigns low probability to near-term tests, reflecting Russia's de-ratification of the CTBT in 2023 for parity reasons alongside sustained diplomatic emphasis on restraint and the absence of verified preparations at sites like Novaya Zemlya. Scheduled diplomatic or military events through late 2026 could shift signals if U.S. policy changes.