Name: # of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?
Start: 2025-10-07T17:26:31.370707Z
End: 2025-10-10T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the number of YouTube views for “Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Official Music Video)” as displayed on its official YouTube video page at 12:00 PM ET on October 10, 2025.

If the video is offline on Friday at 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be the official YouTube video page for “The Fate of Ophelia” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ko70cExuzZM), using the publicly visible view counter at the specified time.

This market will resolve according to the number of YouTube views for “The Fate of Ophelia” as displayed on its official YouTube video page (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ko70cExuzZM) at 12:00 PM ET on October 10, 2025.

If the video is offline on Friday at 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be the official YouTube video page for “The Fate of Ophelia” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ko70cExuzZM), using the publicly visible view counter at the specified time.

25–30M

35–40M

45–50M

<25M

30–35M

40–45M

50M+

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets over 100 million views in the first 7 days after being posted between this market's creation and January 31, 2026, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Videos posted within the final 7 days of this market's resolution date will qualify, and this market will remain open to allow for the full 7 days to be completed.

The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Note: This market refers to MrBeast’s posted YouTube videos. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced videos will not be considered.

Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by January 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married
- Taylor Swift pregnant
- Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce on her new album

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TS.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such stream is aired by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Hedge" or "Hedging" be said during the Robinhood stream?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Google (GOOGL) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Google (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Google (GOOGL) close at $310–325 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275–280 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    

The resolution source will be statements from Taylor Swift or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Netflix (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding.

If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.


Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If FDX does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for FDX.

FedEx (FDX) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's marriage takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resole to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

<25M
$11,684 Vol.
No

25–30M
$30,812 Vol.
No

30–35M
$50,337 Vol.
No

35–40M
$56,910 Vol.
No

40–45M
$28,656 Vol.
No

45–50M
$26,559 Vol.
Yes

50M+
$10,526 Vol.
No

Market Context

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

Rules

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

Market Context

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

About

Related

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

<25M$11,684 Vol.Nocircle xmark

25–30M$30,812 Vol.Nocircle xmark

30–35M$50,337 Vol.Nocircle xmark

35–40M$56,910 Vol.Nocircle xmark

40–45M$28,656 Vol.Nocircle xmark

45–50M$26,559 Vol.Yescircle check

50M+$10,526 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

Rules

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

Market Context

# of views of “The Fate of Ophelia” on Friday?

About

Related

<25M
$11,684 Vol.
No

25–30M
$30,812 Vol.
No

30–35M
$50,337 Vol.
No

35–40M
$56,910 Vol.
No

40–45M
$28,656 Vol.
No

45–50M
$26,559 Vol.
Yes

50M+
$10,526 Vol.
No