Trader consensus pins an 83.5% implied probability on MrBeast's next YouTube video garnering 30-35 million day-1 views, anchored by his consistent recent performance—past uploads like "I Survived 50 Hours In Antarctica" (37M) and "Lose 100 LBs, Win $250,000!" (31M) averaged 33 million in the first 24 hours. This range reflects optimized strategies: explosive thumbnails, subscriber base exceeding 380 million, and algorithmic favoritism for challenge content. The 11.9% on 35-40M accounts for upside from viral teasers on X, where recent hype around a massive giveaway has trended, while lower bins signal no evident audience dip amid YouTube's shifting metrics. Key watch: upload timing and collab reveals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
30–35M 83%
35–40M 12.8%
25–30M 2.8%
40–45M <1%
$1,248,844 Vol.
$1,248,844 Vol.
<20M
<1%
20–25M
<1%
25–30M
3%
30–35M
83%
35–40M
13%
40–45M
<1%
45–50M
<1%
50M+
<1%
30–35M 83%
35–40M 12.8%
25–30M 2.8%
40–45M <1%
$1,248,844 Vol.
$1,248,844 Vol.
<20M
<1%
20–25M
<1%
25–30M
3%
30–35M
83%
35–40M
13%
40–45M
<1%
45–50M
<1%
50M+
<1%
If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus pins an 83.5% implied probability on MrBeast's next YouTube video garnering 30-35 million day-1 views, anchored by his consistent recent performance—past uploads like "I Survived 50 Hours In Antarctica" (37M) and "Lose 100 LBs, Win $250,000!" (31M) averaged 33 million in the first 24 hours. This range reflects optimized strategies: explosive thumbnails, subscriber base exceeding 380 million, and algorithmic favoritism for challenge content. The 11.9% on 35-40M accounts for upside from viral teasers on X, where recent hype around a massive giveaway has trended, while lower bins signal no evident audience dip amid YouTube's shifting metrics. Key watch: upload timing and collab reveals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions