Trader consensus prices No Prison Time at 94.8% implied probability for YouTuber Jack Doherty's Miami Beach case stemming from his confirmed November 2025 arrest during a traffic-blocking stunt, where police found under 20 grams of marijuana, a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court), and charged resisting arrest without violence. With no conviction or sentencing over four months later, and his swift bond release, the market reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Florida's standard handling of first-time, non-violent drug misdemeanors and low-quantity felonies via pretrial diversion or probation rather than incarceration. A January 2026 arraignment confirmed charges without resolution, while social media buzz points to a May court date as the next catalyst. Realistic upsets hinge on a rare guilty verdict imposing custody if priors emerge or diversion is denied, defying historical leniency for influencers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedJack Doherty Prison Time?
Jack Doherty Prison Time?
No Prison Time 94.8%
5+ Years 3.4%
<2 Years 1.9%
2-5 Years 1.9%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
No Prison Time
95%
<2 Years
2%
2-5 Years
2%
5+ Years
3%
No Prison Time 94.8%
5+ Years 3.4%
<2 Years 1.9%
2-5 Years 1.9%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
No Prison Time
$12,071 Vol.
95%
<2 Years
$2,628 Vol.
2%
2-5 Years
$1,713 Vol.
2%
5+ Years
$1,768 Vol.
3%
YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices No Prison Time at 94.8% implied probability for YouTuber Jack Doherty's Miami Beach case stemming from his confirmed November 2025 arrest during a traffic-blocking stunt, where police found under 20 grams of marijuana, a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court), and charged resisting arrest without violence. With no conviction or sentencing over four months later, and his swift bond release, the market reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Florida's standard handling of first-time, non-violent drug misdemeanors and low-quantity felonies via pretrial diversion or probation rather than incarceration. A January 2026 arraignment confirmed charges without resolution, while social media buzz points to a May court date as the next catalyst. Realistic upsets hinge on a rare guilty verdict imposing custody if priors emerge or diversion is denied, defying historical leniency for influencers.
YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$18,180End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices No Prison Time at 94.8% implied probability for YouTuber Jack Doherty's Miami Beach case stemming from his confirmed November 2025 arrest during a traffic-blocking stunt, where police found under 20 grams of marijuana, a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court), and charged resisting arrest without violence. With no conviction or sentencing over four months later, and his swift bond release, the market reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Florida's standard handling of first-time, non-violent drug misdemeanors and low-quantity felonies via pretrial diversion or probation rather than incarceration. A January 2026 arraignment confirmed charges without resolution, while social media buzz points to a May court date as the next catalyst. Realistic upsets hinge on a rare guilty verdict imposing custody if priors emerge or diversion is denied, defying historical leniency for influencers.
YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.
If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,180End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices No Prison Time at 94.8% implied probability for YouTuber Jack Doherty's Miami Beach case stemming from his confirmed November 2025 arrest during a traffic-blocking stunt, where police found under 20 grams of marijuana, a controlled substance (initially reported as amphetamine, later referenced as cocaine in court), and charged resisting arrest without violence. With no conviction or sentencing over four months later, and his swift bond release, the market reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Florida's standard handling of first-time, non-violent drug misdemeanors and low-quantity felonies via pretrial diversion or probation rather than incarceration. A January 2026 arraignment confirmed charges without resolution, while social media buzz points to a May court date as the next catalyst. Realistic upsets hinge on a rare guilty verdict imposing custody if priors emerge or diversion is denied, defying historical leniency for influencers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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