Diddy's ongoing federal incarceration stems from his October 2025 sentencing to 50 months on two Mann Act convictions for transporting individuals for prostitution, following a split July 2025 verdict that acquitted him on racketeering and sex-trafficking charges. Bureau of Prisons records project his release in January or February 2028, even after adjustments for time served, good conduct, and participation in the Residential Drug Abuse Program at FCI Fort Dix. Traders see little prospect of a 2026 exit given the sentence timeline and pending Second Circuit appeal, which has not produced a ruling reversing the outcome. A successful appeal or unexpected credit surge could theoretically accelerate freedom, though such shifts remain unlikely before year-end based on current legal and administrative trajectories.