Sean Combs’ 50-month federal sentence for Mann Act violations, handed down in October 2025 after a split verdict that acquitted him of racketeering and sex-trafficking charges, anchors the market’s strong “No” consensus at 88.9%. With a projected release now set for March 2028 at FCI Fort Dix following recent misconduct reports that cost him two months of good-time credits, release before year-end 2026 is effectively off the table. Ongoing solitary confinement, pending appeal arguments, and Bureau of Prisons adjustments tied to conduct further reinforce trader expectations that the hip-hop mogul will remain in custody through the end of the year.