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Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

Market icon

Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?

6,000-6,500 28%

7,500-8,000 18%

<5,000 3.0%

>8,000 3.0%

Polymarket

$2,168 Vol.

6,000-6,500 28%

7,500-8,000 18%

<5,000 3.0%

>8,000 3.0%

Polymarket

$2,168 Vol.

<5,000

$571 Vol.

3%

5,000-5,500

$439 Vol.

2%

5,500-6,000

$340 Vol.

63%

6,000-6,500

$345 Vol.

28%

6,500-7,000

$205 Vol.

1%

7,000-7,500

$28 Vol.

3%

7,500-8,000

$47 Vol.

18%

>8,000

$213 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31, driven by the FAA's daily air traffic report citing only wind-related ground delays at New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Las Vegas (LAS), signaling a return to moderate disruptions after mid-March storms exceeded 5,000 delays. Localized pressures include a 189-minute LaGuardia ground stop, Southwest's 661 delays, and SFO's runway repaving plus FAA safety measures impacting 25% of arrivals by 30+ minutes. Ongoing TSA staffing shortages—with 366 quits amid spring break recovery—add security bottlenecks, but no widespread weather or ATC outages keep totals below recent peaks, positioning higher bins as low-probability outliers. Final FAA or BTS data will resolve the market.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$2,168
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31, driven by the FAA's daily air traffic report citing only wind-related ground delays at New York-area airports (JFK, LGA, EWR), Philadelphia (PHL), and Las Vegas (LAS), signaling a return to moderate disruptions after mid-March storms exceeded 5,000 delays. Localized pressures include a 189-minute LaGuardia ground stop, Southwest's 661 delays, and SFO's runway repaving plus FAA safety measures impacting 25% of arrivals by 30+ minutes. Ongoing TSA staffing shortages—with 366 quits amid spring break recovery—add security bottlenecks, but no widespread weather or ATC outages keep totals below recent peaks, positioning higher bins as low-probability outliers. Final FAA or BTS data will resolve the market.

This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Volume
$2,168
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5,500-6,000" at 63%, followed by "6,000-6,500" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" is "5,500-6,000" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6,000-6,500" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of US Flights Delayed March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.