Market icon

Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil

Market icon

Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil

≥5.4% 100.0%

≤4.8% <1%

4.9% <1%

5.0% <1%

Polymarket

$21 Vol.

≥5.4% 100.0%

≤4.8% <1%

4.9% <1%

5.0% <1%

Polymarket

$21 Vol.

≤4.8%

$6 Vol.

No

4.9%

$2 Vol.

No

5.0%

$2 Vol.

No

5.1%

$3 Vol.

No

5.2%

$2 Vol.

No

5.3%

$2 Vol.

No

≥5.4%

$2 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the Brazilian unemployment rate reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the monthly Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) for the period of November 2025-January 2026 (quarter ending in January 2026).

The resolution source for this market is the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) release (monthly dissemination), published by the IBGE every month at https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html

The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 5, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available release.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the Brazilian unemployment rate reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the monthly Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) for the period of November 2025-January 2026 (quarter ending in January 2026). The resolution source for this market is the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) release (monthly dissemination), published by the IBGE every month at https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 5, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available release. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≥5.4%" at 100%, followed by "≤4.8%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil" is "≥5.4%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤4.8%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nov-Jan Unemployment Rate - Brazil" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.