The March 31 deadline for a North Korea missile test or launch has passed without detections from South Korean, US, or Japanese militaries, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as the market nears resolution. Earlier March provocations—including a March 14 salvo of around 10 ballistic missiles toward the East Sea amid US-South Korea drills, and cruise missile tests from the Choe Hyon destroyer on March 10-11—did not recur in the latter half of the month, with state media instead announcing a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 31. High confidence reflects rigorous monitoring, North Korea's pattern of timing launches to joint exercises that tapered off, and absence of KCNA claims. Post-deadline, only late-verified covert activity or resolution disputes could alter outcomes, though none have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNorth Korea missile test/launch by March 31?
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?
$46,155 Vol.
$46,155 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$46,155 Vol.
$46,155 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.The March 31 deadline for a North Korea missile test or launch has passed without detections from South Korean, US, or Japanese militaries, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as the market nears resolution. Earlier March provocations—including a March 14 salvo of around 10 ballistic missiles toward the East Sea amid US-South Korea drills, and cruise missile tests from the Choe Hyon destroyer on March 10-11—did not recur in the latter half of the month, with state media instead announcing a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 31. High confidence reflects rigorous monitoring, North Korea's pattern of timing launches to joint exercises that tapered off, and absence of KCNA claims. Post-deadline, only late-verified covert activity or resolution disputes could alter outcomes, though none have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$46,155End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.The March 31 deadline for a North Korea missile test or launch has passed without detections from South Korean, US, or Japanese militaries, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as the market nears resolution. Earlier March provocations—including a March 14 salvo of around 10 ballistic missiles toward the East Sea amid US-South Korea drills, and cruise missile tests from the Choe Hyon destroyer on March 10-11—did not recur in the latter half of the month, with state media instead announcing a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 31. High confidence reflects rigorous monitoring, North Korea's pattern of timing launches to joint exercises that tapered off, and absence of KCNA claims. Post-deadline, only late-verified covert activity or resolution disputes could alter outcomes, though none have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$46,155End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The March 31 deadline for a North Korea missile test or launch has passed without detections from South Korean, US, or Japanese militaries, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as the market nears resolution. Earlier March provocations—including a March 14 salvo of around 10 ballistic missiles toward the East Sea amid US-South Korea drills, and cruise missile tests from the Choe Hyon destroyer on March 10-11—did not recur in the latter half of the month, with state media instead announcing a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 31. High confidence reflects rigorous monitoring, North Korea's pattern of timing launches to joint exercises that tapered off, and absence of KCNA claims. Post-deadline, only late-verified covert activity or resolution disputes could alter outcomes, though none have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions