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Politics·Maduro

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Market icon
Politics·Maduro

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

$2,590,166 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$2,590,166 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$194,717 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and wife Cilia Flores face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments carrying potential life sentences. On March 26, Maduro appeared in New York federal court seeking dismissal of charges, citing sanctions blocking legal fees as denying fair defense, but the judge rejected the motion and allowed the case to proceed after his not-guilty plea. Venezuelan officials demand his immediate release as a political prisoner, while traders weigh prolonged detention amid ongoing pretrial hearings, bail challenges, and diplomatic tensions that could influence extradition or resolution timelines.

Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and wife Cilia Flores face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments carrying potential life sentences. On March 26, Maduro appeared in New York federal court seeking dismissal of charges, citing sanctions blocking legal fees as denying fair defense, but the judge rejected the motion and allowed the case to proceed after his not-guilty plea. Venezuelan officials demand his immediate release as a political prisoner, while traders weigh prolonged detention amid ongoing pretrial hearings, bail challenges, and diplomatic tensions that could influence extradition or resolution timelines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and wife Cilia Flores face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments carrying potential life sentences. On March 26, Maduro appeared in New York federal court seeking dismissal of charges, citing sanctions blocking legal fees as denying fair defense, but the judge rejected the motion and allowed the case to proceed after his not-guilty plea. Venezuelan officials demand his immediate release as a political prisoner, while traders weigh prolonged detention amid ongoing pretrial hearings, bail challenges, and diplomatic tensions that could influence extradition or resolution timelines.

Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and wife Cilia Flores face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments carrying potential life sentences. On March 26, Maduro appeared in New York federal court seeking dismissal of charges, citing sanctions blocking legal fees as denying fair defense, but the judge rejected the motion and allowed the case to proceed after his not-guilty plea. Venezuelan officials demand his immediate release as a political prisoner, while traders weigh prolonged detention amid ongoing pretrial hearings, bail challenges, and diplomatic tensions that could influence extradition or resolution timelines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 15%, followed by "January 9" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 15¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?" has generated $2.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?" is "December 31" at 15%, meaning the market assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "January 9" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.