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Next James Bond actor?

Market icon

Next James Bond actor?

No Bond chosen 65%

Callum Turner 22%

Jacob Elordi 4.5%

Aaron Taylor-Johnson 3.4%

Polymarket

$1,532,159 Vol.

No Bond chosen 65%

Callum Turner 22%

Jacob Elordi 4.5%

Aaron Taylor-Johnson 3.4%

Polymarket

$1,532,159 Vol.

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No Bond chosen

$240,472 Vol.

65%

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Callum Turner

$106,397 Vol.

22%

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Jacob Elordi

$215,483 Vol.

5%

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Aaron Taylor-Johnson

$93,572 Vol.

3%

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Henry Cavill

$182,172 Vol.

2%

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Paul Mescal

$86,553 Vol.

2%

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Harris Dickinson

$129,083 Vol.

1%

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James Norton

$88,647 Vol.

1%

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Josh O'Connor

$11,290 Vol.

1%

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Pierce Brosnan

$169,399 Vol.

1%

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Jack Lowdon

$63,130 Vol.

1%

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Tom Holland

$57,773 Vol.

<1%

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Theo James

$16,223 Vol.

<1%

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Tom Hardy

$61,532 Vol.

<1%

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Robert James-Collier

$10,457 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors no James Bond casting announcement at 64.5%, driven by persistent production delays on Bond 26 since No Time to Die, with insiders dismissing big-name rumors as "bullsh*t" and producers seeking a fresh British face under potential director Denis Villeneuve. Callum Turner's implied 21.5% probability surged in March after festival buzz and reports of him as the "worst-kept secret," bolstered by his rising star in Masters of the Air and The Boys in the Boat, outpacing Jacob Elordi's February offer whispers (now 4.1%) and faded Aaron Taylor-Johnson speculation (3.5%). Henry Cavill lingers at 2.3% on fan appeal, but uncertainty reigns absent official Eon or Amazon MGM word; watch for April filming starts that could trigger reveals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,532,159
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors no James Bond casting announcement at 64.5%, driven by persistent production delays on Bond 26 since No Time to Die, with insiders dismissing big-name rumors as "bullsh*t" and producers seeking a fresh British face under potential director Denis Villeneuve. Callum Turner's implied 21.5% probability surged in March after festival buzz and reports of him as the "worst-kept secret," bolstered by his rising star in Masters of the Air and The Boys in the Boat, outpacing Jacob Elordi's February offer whispers (now 4.1%) and faded Aaron Taylor-Johnson speculation (3.5%). Henry Cavill lingers at 2.3% on fan appeal, but uncertainty reigns absent official Eon or Amazon MGM word; watch for April filming starts that could trigger reveals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,532,159
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next James Bond actor?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Bond chosen" at 65%, followed by "Callum Turner" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next James Bond actor?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next James Bond actor?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next James Bond actor?" is "No Bond chosen" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Callum Turner" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next James Bond actor?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.