The 80.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30 reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity and historical patterns showing roughly one such event globally per year, with none recorded in 2026 to date despite recent M7.4 activity off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga in late March. These near-misses highlight typical subduction zone dynamics but lack precursors like anomalous strain buildup or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent M8+, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader consensus discounts short-term escalation absent model consensus shifts, with continuous seismic feeds providing the next key updates amid normal global activity levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$37,348 Vol.
$37,348 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$37,348 Vol.
$37,348 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 80.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30 reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity and historical patterns showing roughly one such event globally per year, with none recorded in 2026 to date despite recent M7.4 activity off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga in late March. These near-misses highlight typical subduction zone dynamics but lack precursors like anomalous strain buildup or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent M8+, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader consensus discounts short-term escalation absent model consensus shifts, with continuous seismic feeds providing the next key updates amid normal global activity levels.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$37,348End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 80.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30 reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity and historical patterns showing roughly one such event globally per year, with none recorded in 2026 to date despite recent M7.4 activity off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga in late March. These near-misses highlight typical subduction zone dynamics but lack precursors like anomalous strain buildup or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent M8+, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader consensus discounts short-term escalation absent model consensus shifts, with continuous seismic feeds providing the next key updates amid normal global activity levels.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$37,348End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 80.5% market-implied probability for no megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater event per USGS data—by June 30 reflects the inherent unpredictability of seismicity and historical patterns showing roughly one such event globally per year, with none recorded in 2026 to date despite recent M7.4 activity off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga in late March. These near-misses highlight typical subduction zone dynamics but lack precursors like anomalous strain buildup or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent M8+, as affirmed by USGS monitoring. Trader consensus discounts short-term escalation absent model consensus shifts, with continuous seismic feeds providing the next key updates amid normal global activity levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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