Name: Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?
Start: 2024-05-28T19:51:14.413009Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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Ohio billionaire Larry Connor announced he intends to take a submarine excursion to the Titanic with CEO of Triton Submarines Patrick Laney, demonstrating in the wake of OceanGate that submarines are safe. You can read more about this planned excursion here: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2024/05/28/ohio-billionaire-to-take-20-million-submersible-on-titanic-journey/73874942007/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Connor reaches the Titanic in a submarine and successfully resurfaces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that the excursion is cancelled or scheduled outside of this market's timeframe this market will immediately resolve to "No".  

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.  

Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?

Alex Honnold is scheduled to free solo (climb without ropes or protective equipment) the tallest building in Taiwan (Taipei 101) on a Netflix livestream on January 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alex Honnold completes a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Alex Honnold’s free solo will be considered completed if he finishes the full route depicted as the official climb in the Netflix livestream of the event without the use of ropes or protective equipment. If the livestream presents the climb as ending upon reaching the roof or 101st floor of Taipei 101, the climb will be considered completed once Honnold reaches that point. If the livestream presents the official route as continuing beyond the 101st floor to the top of the building’s spire, the climb will be considered completed once Honnold reaches the top of the spire.

If Honnold abandons his free solo before completion (e.g. he climbs back down or enters the building through a window), this market will resolve to “No”.

If Honnold’s free solo attempt is canceled, postponed after January 31, 2026, or otherwise not completed within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Netflix livestream of Honnold’s climb and official information from Alex Honnold or Netflix; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Crenshaw initiates a lawsuit against Shawn Ryan by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dan Crenshaw sue Shawn Ryan by Jan 31?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.

1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Missile/drone strikes which are shot down or don't hit the terminal will not be considered for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026.

Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified. If wreckage is located before the resolution date, but it unknown as to whether it came from MH370, this market may stay open until a consensus has been reached as to the wreckage's origin.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth installment in James Cameron's Avatar series is explicitly announced to be in production or preparing to enter production by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the film must be explicitly acknowledged by James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, its distributor/studio (e.g., 20th Century Studios), or that distributor/studio's parent company (e.g., Disney) to be a sequel to "Avatar: Fire and Ash", and have a similar sequential relationship to the one between "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash". An announcement of a new qualifying film before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced film becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from James Cameron, Lightstorm Entertainment, a qualifying film's distributor (e.g., 20th Century Studios) or parent company (e.g., Disney), or a consensus of credible sources.

Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.

Iran strike on US military by January 31?

Ryan Seacrest is scheduled to host ABC's Dick Clarke's New Years Rockin' Eve with Ryan Seacrest on December 31, 2025 at 9PM ET (https://www.newyearsrockineve.com/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ryan Seacrest says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Ryan Seacrest's scheduled appearance on December 31, 2025 and January 1, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled by Ryan Seacrest or ABC, or otherwise is not aired by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Ryan Seacrest say "New Year" or "New Year's" 30+ times on New Year's Rockin' Eve?

Bryan Johnson recently made public his relationship with co-founder Kate Tolo (https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1995953490930401334). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bryan Johnson proposes to Kate Tolo by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is definitively determined that Bryan Johnson and Kate Tolo have ended their romantic relationship within the stated timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be photo or video of the proposal, or official statements of Bryan Johnson, Kate Tolo, or their legal representatives, otherwise a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes”  if both the following occur: 

1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 

2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.  

Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.

Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare  for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect. 

If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.  

Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png

Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg

Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Justin Tucker signs with an NFL team as a player before the 2025-2026 NFL season ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tucker will be considered to have signed with an NFL team if his signing is recorded on the official NFL transaction wire.

The resolution source for this market will be the official NFL transaction wire (https://www.nfl.com/transactions/). 

Will Justin Tucker sign with an NFL team this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Khamenei leaves Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "No". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 James Norris Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?

Market Context

Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?

Rules

Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?

Market Context

Larry Connor successful submarine trip to Titanic?

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