Iran's Supreme Leader position faces ongoing instability after Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 Israeli strikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor on March 8 amid a 40-day transition period. Recent reports from early April confirm Mojtaba's severe injuries—including potential amputations, spinal damage, and incapacity—from U.S.-backed airstrikes, leaving the regime in fragmented "mosaic command" under a temporary council with IRGC influence. Nationwide protests since December 2025, economic woes, and escalating military actions heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, with no confirmed next successor as diplomatic tensions and potential new strikes loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$6,206,054 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
April 30
10%
May 31
16%
June 30
22%
December 31
39%
$6,206,054 Vol.
April 30
$1,721,292 Vol.
10%
May 31
$86,653 Vol.
16%
June 30
$42,779 Vol.
22%
December 31
$1,124,500 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader position faces ongoing instability after Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 Israeli strikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor on March 8 amid a 40-day transition period. Recent reports from early April confirm Mojtaba's severe injuries—including potential amputations, spinal damage, and incapacity—from U.S.-backed airstrikes, leaving the regime in fragmented "mosaic command" under a temporary council with IRGC influence. Nationwide protests since December 2025, economic woes, and escalating military actions heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, with no confirmed next successor as diplomatic tensions and potential new strikes loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,206,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader position faces ongoing instability after Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 Israeli strikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor on March 8 amid a 40-day transition period. Recent reports from early April confirm Mojtaba's severe injuries—including potential amputations, spinal damage, and incapacity—from U.S.-backed airstrikes, leaving the regime in fragmented "mosaic command" under a temporary council with IRGC influence. Nationwide protests since December 2025, economic woes, and escalating military actions heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, with no confirmed next successor as diplomatic tensions and potential new strikes loom.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,206,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Iran's Supreme Leader position faces ongoing instability after Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 Israeli strikes, prompting the Assembly of Experts to appoint his son Mojtaba as successor on March 8 amid a 40-day transition period. Recent reports from early April confirm Mojtaba's severe injuries—including potential amputations, spinal damage, and incapacity—from U.S.-backed airstrikes, leaving the regime in fragmented "mosaic command" under a temporary council with IRGC influence. Nationwide protests since December 2025, economic woes, and escalating military actions heighten risks of further leadership upheaval, with no confirmed next successor as diplomatic tensions and potential new strikes loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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