The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$57,947,403 Vol.
20 maggio
Sì
21 maggio
Sì
22 maggio
Sì
May 23
Yes
24 maggio
Sì
May 25
No
May 26
No
27 maggio
No
May 28
No
31 maggio
No
7 giugno
No
15 giugno
No
30 giugno
No
31 luglio
No
31 dicembre
No
$57,947,403 Vol.
20 maggio
$507,174 Vol.
Sì
21 maggio
$1,343,114 Vol.
Sì
22 maggio
$9,281,357 Vol.
Sì
May 23
$3,224,534 Vol.
Yes
24 maggio
$31,918,587 Vol.
Sì
May 25
$5,013,204 Vol.
No
May 26
$1,062,433 Vol.
No
27 maggio
$1,241,991 Vol.
No
May 28
$621,270 Vol.
No
31 maggio
$2,166,168 Vol.
No
7 giugno
$367,776 Vol.
No
15 giugno
$391,789 Vol.
No
30 giugno
$300,055 Vol.
No
31 luglio
$144,584 Vol.
No
31 dicembre
$363,368 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$57,947,403Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,947,403Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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