President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act during Minneapolis protests against ICE enforcement—following clashes and local resistance—drove initial market volatility but did not lead to activation, as he federalized the National Guard instead. This rare modern consideration of the 1807 law, last used in 1992, underscores ongoing federal-state tensions over immigration and border security. No invocations or major unrest have occurred in the past 30 days, contributing to trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid stalled congressional reforms (H.R.4076, S.2070) seeking to limit presidential authority. Escalating sanctuary city defiance or widespread domestic violence could prompt reevaluation before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedInsurrection Act invoked by...?
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
$1,035,425 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
3%
June 30
15%
December 31
28%
$1,035,425 Vol.
April 30
$753 Vol.
3%
June 30
$65,803 Vol.
15%
December 31
$120,923 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act during Minneapolis protests against ICE enforcement—following clashes and local resistance—drove initial market volatility but did not lead to activation, as he federalized the National Guard instead. This rare modern consideration of the 1807 law, last used in 1992, underscores ongoing federal-state tensions over immigration and border security. No invocations or major unrest have occurred in the past 30 days, contributing to trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid stalled congressional reforms (H.R.4076, S.2070) seeking to limit presidential authority. Escalating sanctuary city defiance or widespread domestic violence could prompt reevaluation before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$1,035,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act during Minneapolis protests against ICE enforcement—following clashes and local resistance—drove initial market volatility but did not lead to activation, as he federalized the National Guard instead. This rare modern consideration of the 1807 law, last used in 1992, underscores ongoing federal-state tensions over immigration and border security. No invocations or major unrest have occurred in the past 30 days, contributing to trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid stalled congressional reforms (H.R.4076, S.2070) seeking to limit presidential authority. Escalating sanctuary city defiance or widespread domestic violence could prompt reevaluation before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,035,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act during Minneapolis protests against ICE enforcement—following clashes and local resistance—drove initial market volatility but did not lead to activation, as he federalized the National Guard instead. This rare modern consideration of the 1807 law, last used in 1992, underscores ongoing federal-state tensions over immigration and border security. No invocations or major unrest have occurred in the past 30 days, contributing to trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid stalled congressional reforms (H.R.4076, S.2070) seeking to limit presidential authority. Escalating sanctuary city defiance or widespread domestic violence could prompt reevaluation before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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