Trader consensus favors 14 SpaceX launches in April at 42.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Falcon 9 cadence of roughly 13 per month—sustained through reusable boosters across Florida and California pads—bolstered by yesterday's successful Starlink Group 10-58 mission on April 2 from Cape Canaveral. This early momentum, amid aggressive Starlink constellation expansion and no Starship flights expected per Elon Musk's 4-6 week timeline for Flight 12, positions 12 (32.2%) and 13 (23.0%) as strong contenders, reflecting optimism for densely packed manifests without major delays. Key upcoming catalysts include Vandenberg Starlink on April 4 and Cygnus NG-24 resupply on April 8, though weather or range conflicts could cap totals below 14.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated12 32.3%
13 23%
15 15%
16 14.0%
$16,405 Vol.
$16,405 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
32%
13
23%
14
42%
15
15%
16
10%
17 or more
10%
12 32.3%
13 23%
15 15%
16 14.0%
$16,405 Vol.
$16,405 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
32%
13
23%
14
42%
15
15%
16
10%
17 or more
10%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 14 SpaceX launches in April at 42.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering Falcon 9 cadence of roughly 13 per month—sustained through reusable boosters across Florida and California pads—bolstered by yesterday's successful Starlink Group 10-58 mission on April 2 from Cape Canaveral. This early momentum, amid aggressive Starlink constellation expansion and no Starship flights expected per Elon Musk's 4-6 week timeline for Flight 12, positions 12 (32.2%) and 13 (23.0%) as strong contenders, reflecting optimism for densely packed manifests without major delays. Key upcoming catalysts include Vandenberg Starlink on April 4 and Cygnus NG-24 resupply on April 8, though weather or range conflicts could cap totals below 14.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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