Trader consensus favors 82-83°F at 49.5% implied probability for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, aligning closely with the latest National Weather Service forecast of a high near 82°F under mostly sunny skies and southerly winds at 10-15 mph. This positioning stems from GFS and ECMWF model consensus on low-to-mid 80s maxima, sustained by a persistent warm pattern after Texas's record-warm March, with southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture and heat. Recent scattered showers on April 1-2 introduced minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via cloud cover, while 80-81°F (31%) and 84-85°F (14%) reflect model spread and urban heat effects at William P. Hobby Airport, the resolution site. Updated NWS guidance expected today could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on April 3?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 3?
82-83°F 52%
80-81°F 32%
84-85°F 13%
86-87°F 5%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
52%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 52%
80-81°F 32%
84-85°F 13%
86-87°F 5%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
52%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 82-83°F at 49.5% implied probability for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, aligning closely with the latest National Weather Service forecast of a high near 82°F under mostly sunny skies and southerly winds at 10-15 mph. This positioning stems from GFS and ECMWF model consensus on low-to-mid 80s maxima, sustained by a persistent warm pattern after Texas's record-warm March, with southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture and heat. Recent scattered showers on April 1-2 introduced minor uncertainty, potentially capping peaks via cloud cover, while 80-81°F (31%) and 84-85°F (14%) reflect model spread and urban heat effects at William P. Hobby Airport, the resolution site. Updated NWS guidance expected today could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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