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Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)

Market icon

Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)

Apr 3

Apr 3

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100.0%

Project Hail Mary <1%

Hoppers <1%

The Drama <1%

Polymarket

$41,385 Vol.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100.0%

Project Hail Mary <1%

Hoppers <1%

The Drama <1%

Polymarket

$41,385 Vol.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$31,129 Vol.

100%

Project Hail Mary

$4,987 Vol.

<1%

Hoppers

$1,713 Vol.

<1%

The Drama

$1,815 Vol.

<1%

A Great Awakening

$1,741 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's blockbuster launch, with a record-shattering $34 million domestic opening day on Wednesday and global first-day take of $68 million, has locked in trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest-grossing this Easter weekend, driven by massive family presales, Nintendo's enduring brand power from the 2023 hit, and favorable holiday timing boosting five-day projections to $170-196 million. Holdover challengers like Project Hail Mary (now in week three) and Hoppers fade amid steep drops, while limited openers The Drama (A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie) and A Great Awakening (historical drama) lack wide tracking for upsets. Realistic wildcards include poor word-of-mouth or weather disruptions, though current momentum signals unchallenged dominance as final tallies post-Monday.

This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$41,385
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's blockbuster launch, with a record-shattering $34 million domestic opening day on Wednesday and global first-day take of $68 million, has locked in trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for highest-grossing this Easter weekend, driven by massive family presales, Nintendo's enduring brand power from the 2023 hit, and favorable holiday timing boosting five-day projections to $170-196 million. Holdover challengers like Project Hail Mary (now in week three) and Hoppers fade amid steep drops, while limited openers The Drama (A24 Zendaya-Pattinson indie) and A Great Awakening (historical drama) lack wide tracking for upsets. Realistic wildcards include poor word-of-mouth or weather disruptions, though current momentum signals unchallenged dominance as final tallies post-Monday.

This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$41,385
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 100%, followed by "Project Hail Mary" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)" has generated $41.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)" is "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Project Hail Mary" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.