Morena holds the strongest position in the Guerrero state congress election scheduled for 2027, backed by its current majority of 22 seats in the 46-member legislature and consistent polling leads of 45-55% in recent surveys for the broader 2027 contests. Traders price the party at 56.5% implied probability, well ahead of PRI at 30.3% and smaller shares for PT, PAN, PVEM, and MC. Key drivers include Morena’s internal consolidation under state coordinator Beatriz Mojica following her dominant September 2026 survey results, ongoing territorial organization, and the opposition’s limited recent gains. The INE’s local council installation and early campaign complaints have not shifted momentum. A unified Morena-PT-PVEM bloc and weak challenger polling keep separation likely unless major defections or turnout surprises emerge before the vote.