The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Following the July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent amid a divided vote, market pricing in fed funds futures and prediction platforms has placed the highest probability on a 25 basis point hike. Strong labor market data and concerns that inflation may reaccelerate without further tightening underpin the 59.5 percent consensus for that outcome. Incoming August inflation, employment, and energy figures remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the next policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent U.S. inflation readings and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Following the July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent amid a divided vote, market pricing in fed funds futures and prediction platforms has placed the highest probability on a 25 basis point hike. Strong labor market data and concerns that inflation may reaccelerate without further tightening underpin the 59.5 percent consensus for that outcome. Incoming August inflation, employment, and energy figures remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the next policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting amid inflation concerns
No change rises to 39%4%
In the July 28-29 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, despite dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. Elevated inflation, especially from energy prices, and economic uncertainty led to a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations of possible hikes later in 2026 but no immediate change.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting with Dissenters Favoring Hike
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold. However, three dissenting members favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to price stability, and markets interpreted this as maintaining the possibility of a September rate increase.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring a hike
No change dips to 39%3%
In a close 9-3 vote, the Fed kept rates unchanged at the July meeting, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic resilience. The dissenters favored a 25 basis point hike, reflecting market expectations for a possible increase in September.
Jul 29 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals commitment to price stability amid inflation concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 60%6%
At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on restoring price stability and indicated that the committee remains data-dependent, keeping the possibility of future rate hikes open given persistent inflation.
During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.
Jul 15 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast
No change dips to 39%2%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook
25 bps increase rises to 39%2%
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.
Jul 14 2026
House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.
Jul 14 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated
No change dips to 59%2%
The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes.
Jul 14 2026
June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee
25 bps increase jumps to 49%13%
Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.
Jul 13 2026
Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 18%2%
The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a commitment to price stability, which led markets to price in a higher likelihood of a 25 bps increase in subsequent meetings.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signals hawkish outlook
25 bps increase rises to 16%3%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously held the federal funds rate steady but raised its year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish shift and increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting
No change rises to 80%4%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause amid ongoing inflation concerns and a resilient labor market. The statement removed easing bias language, indicating a more hawkish outlook and supporting market expectations of possible future hikes.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and elevated inflation
No change rises to 79%4%
At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The updated dot plot indicated a hawkish pivot with fewer expected rate cuts and a possibility of hikes later in the year.
Jun 10 2026
U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.
Jun 9 2026
Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation
A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.
Jun 5 2026
May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.
May 29 2026
Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation rises due to Middle East conflict
25 bps increase rises to 17%1%
Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation accelerates, particularly due to supply shocks from the Middle East war, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market expectations away from cuts and toward potential hikes later in 2026.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as new US Fed chair
25 bps increase rises to 14%3%
Kevin Warsh officially took office as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026, beginning his leadership amid inflation pressures and political scrutiny, setting the stage for his first FOMC meeting and potential policy shifts.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate
25 bps increase plunges to 11%15%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13, 2026, as the new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy direction amid ongoing inflation challenges. His confirmation introduced uncertainty and expectations of a hawkish stance, influencing market pricing for future rate hikes.
May 13 2026
Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market outlook away from rate cuts
25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%
A May inflation report showed a 4.2% annual CPI increase, the highest in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This led markets to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation readings and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Following the July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent amid a divided vote, market pricing in fed funds futures and prediction platforms has placed the highest probability on a 25 basis point hike. Strong labor market data and concerns that inflation may reaccelerate without further tightening underpin the 59.5 percent consensus for that outcome. Incoming August inflation, employment, and energy figures remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the next policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent U.S. inflation readings and energy price pressures tied to geopolitical tensions have shifted trader focus toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Following the July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent amid a divided vote, market pricing in fed funds futures and prediction platforms has placed the highest probability on a 25 basis point hike. Strong labor market data and concerns that inflation may reaccelerate without further tightening underpin the 59.5 percent consensus for that outcome. Incoming August inflation, employment, and energy figures remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the next policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting amid inflation concerns
No change rises to 39%4%
In the July 28-29 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, despite dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. Elevated inflation, especially from energy prices, and economic uncertainty led to a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations of possible hikes later in 2026 but no immediate change.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting with Dissenters Favoring Hike
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold. However, three dissenting members favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to price stability, and markets interpreted this as maintaining the possibility of a September rate increase.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring a hike
No change dips to 39%3%
In a close 9-3 vote, the Fed kept rates unchanged at the July meeting, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic resilience. The dissenters favored a 25 basis point hike, reflecting market expectations for a possible increase in September.
Jul 29 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals commitment to price stability amid inflation concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 60%6%
At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on restoring price stability and indicated that the committee remains data-dependent, keeping the possibility of future rate hikes open given persistent inflation.
During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.
Jul 15 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast
No change dips to 39%2%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook
25 bps increase rises to 39%2%
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.
Jul 14 2026
House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.
Jul 14 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated
No change dips to 59%2%
The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes.
Jul 14 2026
June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee
25 bps increase jumps to 49%13%
Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.
Jul 13 2026
Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 18%2%
The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a commitment to price stability, which led markets to price in a higher likelihood of a 25 bps increase in subsequent meetings.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signals hawkish outlook
25 bps increase rises to 16%3%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously held the federal funds rate steady but raised its year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish shift and increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting
No change rises to 80%4%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause amid ongoing inflation concerns and a resilient labor market. The statement removed easing bias language, indicating a more hawkish outlook and supporting market expectations of possible future hikes.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and elevated inflation
No change rises to 79%4%
At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The updated dot plot indicated a hawkish pivot with fewer expected rate cuts and a possibility of hikes later in the year.
Jun 10 2026
U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.
Jun 9 2026
Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation
A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.
Jun 5 2026
May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.
May 29 2026
Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation rises due to Middle East conflict
25 bps increase rises to 17%1%
Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation accelerates, particularly due to supply shocks from the Middle East war, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market expectations away from cuts and toward potential hikes later in 2026.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as new US Fed chair
25 bps increase rises to 14%3%
Kevin Warsh officially took office as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026, beginning his leadership amid inflation pressures and political scrutiny, setting the stage for his first FOMC meeting and potential policy shifts.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate
25 bps increase plunges to 11%15%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13, 2026, as the new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy direction amid ongoing inflation challenges. His confirmation introduced uncertainty and expectations of a hawkish stance, influencing market pricing for future rate hikes.
May 13 2026
Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market outlook away from rate cuts
25 bps increase jumps to 38%12%
A May inflation report showed a 4.2% annual CPI increase, the highest in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This led markets to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in 2026.
"Fed Decision in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25 bps increase" at 60%, followed by "No change" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Fed Decision in September?" has generated $10.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Fed Decision in September?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Fed Decision in September?" is "25 bps increase" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Fed Decision in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed Decision in September?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $10.3 million traded on “Fed Decision in September?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Fed Decision in September?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 60¢ for "25 bps increase" in the "Fed Decision in September?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 60% chance that "25 bps increase" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 60¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 40¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Fed Decision in September?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 15, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Fed Decision in September?" market has an active community of 8,587 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed Decision in September?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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