Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, citing persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price shock, which has elevated combined hike odds to around 8%. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, unemployment edged to 4.4%, and weekly jobless claims remained low at 210,000, signaling labor market resilience that curbs easing expectations. Traders await April 10 CPI and May FOMC for potential shifts in the market-implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo change 78%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 7.5%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,422,560 Vol.
$2,422,560 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
12%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 7.5%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,422,560 Vol.
$2,422,560 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$44,254 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$28,111 Vol.
12%
No change
$43,068 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,258,670 Vol.
8%
50+ bps increase
$49,535 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, citing persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price shock, which has elevated combined hike odds to around 8%. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, unemployment edged to 4.4%, and weekly jobless claims remained low at 210,000, signaling labor market resilience that curbs easing expectations. Traders await April 10 CPI and May FOMC for potential shifts in the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,422,560End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, citing persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price shock, which has elevated combined hike odds to around 8%. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, unemployment edged to 4.4%, and weekly jobless claims remained low at 210,000, signaling labor market resilience that curbs easing expectations. Traders await April 10 CPI and May FOMC for potential shifts in the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$2,422,560End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18, citing persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict's oil price shock, which has elevated combined hike odds to around 8%. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, unemployment edged to 4.4%, and weekly jobless claims remained low at 210,000, signaling labor market resilience that curbs easing expectations. Traders await April 10 CPI and May FOMC for potential shifts in the market-implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions