China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and signaling early momentum from robust industrial output and resilient exports amid global disruptions like the Iran conflict. This supports trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% annual growth at 66%, aligning closely with Beijing's official 4.5–5.0% target set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and IMF projections of 4.4%. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 30.8% reflects optimism from 2025's 5.0% achievement and stimulus measures targeting consumption, though weak retail sales, property sector drags, and potential fiscal tightening cap upside, while lower ranges remain improbable absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 64%
5.0–6.0% 32.2%
3.0–4.0% <1%
2.0–3.0% <1%
$303,328 Vol.
$303,328 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
64%
5.0–6.0%
32%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 64%
5.0–6.0% 32.2%
3.0–4.0% <1%
2.0–3.0% <1%
$303,328 Vol.
$303,328 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$25,910 Vol.
1%
1.0–2.0%
$29,298 Vol.
1%
2.0–3.0%
$9,761 Vol.
1%
3.0–4.0%
$14,759 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$62,781 Vol.
64%
5.0–6.0%
$26,154 Vol.
32%
6.0-7.0%
$22,198 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$31,807 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$9,081 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$71,578 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and signaling early momentum from robust industrial output and resilient exports amid global disruptions like the Iran conflict. This supports trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% annual growth at 66%, aligning closely with Beijing's official 4.5–5.0% target set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and IMF projections of 4.4%. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 30.8% reflects optimism from 2025's 5.0% achievement and stimulus measures targeting consumption, though weak retail sales, property sector drags, and potential fiscal tightening cap upside, while lower ranges remain improbable absent major shocks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$303,328End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and signaling early momentum from robust industrial output and resilient exports amid global disruptions like the Iran conflict. This supports trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% annual growth at 66%, aligning closely with Beijing's official 4.5–5.0% target set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and IMF projections of 4.4%. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 30.8% reflects optimism from 2025's 5.0% achievement and stimulus measures targeting consumption, though weak retail sales, property sector drags, and potential fiscal tightening cap upside, while lower ranges remain improbable absent major shocks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$303,328End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and signaling early momentum from robust industrial output and resilient exports amid global disruptions like the Iran conflict. This supports trader consensus pricing 4.0–5.0% annual growth at 66%, aligning closely with Beijing's official 4.5–5.0% target set during March's Two Sessions—the lowest in decades—and IMF projections of 4.4%. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 30.8% reflects optimism from 2025's 5.0% achievement and stimulus measures targeting consumption, though weak retail sales, property sector drags, and potential fiscal tightening cap upside, while lower ranges remain improbable absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions