Polymarket traders price a 38% implied probability on April 2026 monthly CPI at 0.5%, with 27.5% on 0.4% and 15% on 0.6%, signaling consensus for moderation from March's scorching 0.9% month-over-month surge—the largest since June 2022—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike including 21.2% gasoline gains that lifted annual inflation to 3.3% from 2.4%. This unexpected reacceleration, released April 10 amid volatile oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has elevated expectations above prior sub-0.3% norms but below extremes, as stabilizing crude benchmarks and softer core PCE nowcasts around 0.22% temper upside risks. The April CPI releases May 12, ahead of the FOMC's late-May meeting, where hotter prints could reinforce pause in rate cuts amid resilient labor data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
7%
0.4%
28%
0.5%
38%
0.6%
16%
0.7%
7%
0.8%
5%
0.9%
2%
1.0%
3%
≥1.1%
3%
NEW
NEW
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
$361 Vol.
7%
0.4%
$885 Vol.
28%
0.5%
$1,187 Vol.
38%
0.6%
$566 Vol.
16%
0.7%
$930 Vol.
7%
0.8%
$808 Vol.
5%
0.9%
$715 Vol.
2%
1.0%
$1,026 Vol.
3%
≥1.1%
$696 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 38% implied probability on April 2026 monthly CPI at 0.5%, with 27.5% on 0.4% and 15% on 0.6%, signaling consensus for moderation from March's scorching 0.9% month-over-month surge—the largest since June 2022—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike including 21.2% gasoline gains that lifted annual inflation to 3.3% from 2.4%. This unexpected reacceleration, released April 10 amid volatile oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has elevated expectations above prior sub-0.3% norms but below extremes, as stabilizing crude benchmarks and softer core PCE nowcasts around 0.22% temper upside risks. The April CPI releases May 12, ahead of the FOMC's late-May meeting, where hotter prints could reinforce pause in rate cuts amid resilient labor data.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,173End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 38% implied probability on April 2026 monthly CPI at 0.5%, with 27.5% on 0.4% and 15% on 0.6%, signaling consensus for moderation from March's scorching 0.9% month-over-month surge—the largest since June 2022—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike including 21.2% gasoline gains that lifted annual inflation to 3.3% from 2.4%. This unexpected reacceleration, released April 10 amid volatile oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has elevated expectations above prior sub-0.3% norms but below extremes, as stabilizing crude benchmarks and softer core PCE nowcasts around 0.22% temper upside risks. The April CPI releases May 12, ahead of the FOMC's late-May meeting, where hotter prints could reinforce pause in rate cuts amid resilient labor data.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$7,173End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 38% implied probability on April 2026 monthly CPI at 0.5%, with 27.5% on 0.4% and 15% on 0.6%, signaling consensus for moderation from March's scorching 0.9% month-over-month surge—the largest since June 2022—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike including 21.2% gasoline gains that lifted annual inflation to 3.3% from 2.4%. This unexpected reacceleration, released April 10 amid volatile oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has elevated expectations above prior sub-0.3% norms but below extremes, as stabilizing crude benchmarks and softer core PCE nowcasts around 0.22% temper upside risks. The April CPI releases May 12, ahead of the FOMC's late-May meeting, where hotter prints could reinforce pause in rate cuts amid resilient labor data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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