Recent advances in frontier AI models, particularly OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude variants, have driven strong trader consensus toward near-term resolution of the “Yes” outcome. Epoch AI’s September 1 launch of FrontierMath Erdős saw Astra solve two of 68 previously open problems in Lean-verified proofs, while September reports confirmed saturation of the corrected Tier 4 benchmark and high-profile AI-assisted formalizations of results such as Fermat’s last theorem. These developments, alongside ongoing agent-based efforts on Millennium Prize problems, highlight accelerating research-level reasoning capabilities. Key upcoming catalysts include Epoch AI’s next updates to the Open Problems collection and any official verification of additional solutions before September 30 or year-end. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that continued scaling and tool use will likely produce another recognized solve soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,886 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
Yes
October 31
Yes
$19,886 Vol.
September 30
$15,005 Vol.
Yes
October 31
$4,882 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Recent advances in frontier AI models, particularly OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude variants, have driven strong trader consensus toward near-term resolution of the “Yes” outcome. Epoch AI’s September 1 launch of FrontierMath Erdős saw Astra solve two of 68 previously open problems in Lean-verified proofs, while September reports confirmed saturation of the corrected Tier 4 benchmark and high-profile AI-assisted formalizations of results such as Fermat’s last theorem. These developments, alongside ongoing agent-based efforts on Millennium Prize problems, highlight accelerating research-level reasoning capabilities. Key upcoming catalysts include Epoch AI’s next updates to the Open Problems collection and any official verification of additional solutions before September 30 or year-end. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that continued scaling and tool use will likely produce another recognized solve soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$19,886End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Recent advances in frontier AI models, particularly OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude variants, have driven strong trader consensus toward near-term resolution of the “Yes” outcome. Epoch AI’s September 1 launch of FrontierMath Erdős saw Astra solve two of 68 previously open problems in Lean-verified proofs, while September reports confirmed saturation of the corrected Tier 4 benchmark and high-profile AI-assisted formalizations of results such as Fermat’s last theorem. These developments, alongside ongoing agent-based efforts on Millennium Prize problems, highlight accelerating research-level reasoning capabilities. Key upcoming catalysts include Epoch AI’s next updates to the Open Problems collection and any official verification of additional solutions before September 30 or year-end. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that continued scaling and tool use will likely produce another recognized solve soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$19,886End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent advances in frontier AI models, particularly OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude variants, have driven strong trader consensus toward near-term resolution of the “Yes” outcome. Epoch AI’s September 1 launch of FrontierMath Erdős saw Astra solve two of 68 previously open problems in Lean-verified proofs, while September reports confirmed saturation of the corrected Tier 4 benchmark and high-profile AI-assisted formalizations of results such as Fermat’s last theorem. These developments, alongside ongoing agent-based efforts on Millennium Prize problems, highlight accelerating research-level reasoning capabilities. Key upcoming catalysts include Epoch AI’s next updates to the Open Problems collection and any official verification of additional solutions before September 30 or year-end. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that continued scaling and tool use will likely produce another recognized solve soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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