Blue Origin’s New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a pad explosion during a May 2026 static-fire test traced to a BE-4 engine oxygen valve, prompting extensive repairs at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 and a return-to-flight target no earlier than December. New Shepard suborbital flights remain paused since January, shifting company resources toward lunar lander development. With no launches, hot-fire tests, or other flight hardware operations scheduled through October 31, trader consensus reflects the absence of near-term opportunities for another failure. Residual uncertainty stems from the possibility of an unscheduled ground test or unforeseen regulatory hold that could compress timelines, though current pad status and manifest make such events improbable before month-end.