Market icon

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Market icon

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

May 31

May 31

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,546 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$2,933 Vol.

18%

April 30

$2,636 Vol.

82%

May 31

$1,977 Vol.

91%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady seismic risks worldwide, with no major M7.0+ quakes reported in the past 30 days following the August 29 Mariana Islands M7.3 event. Global plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire remain active, driving baseline probabilities based on historical averages of 12-20 such events annually per USGS data. Recent quiet periods have tempered short-term odds, but upticks in foreshocks or swarm activity in high-risk zones—such as Japan, Indonesia, or the U.S. West Coast—could shift sentiment rapidly. Key to watch: USGS real-time monitoring and any volcanic unrest, as markets resolve on verified epicenters hitting the magnitude threshold before the deadline. Unpredictable nature of tectonics underscores the wisdom of crowds pricing in tail risks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$7,546
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady seismic risks worldwide, with no major M7.0+ quakes reported in the past 30 days following the August 29 Mariana Islands M7.3 event. Global plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire remain active, driving baseline probabilities based on historical averages of 12-20 such events annually per USGS data. Recent quiet periods have tempered short-term odds, but upticks in foreshocks or swarm activity in high-risk zones—such as Japan, Indonesia, or the U.S. West Coast—could shift sentiment rapidly. Key to watch: USGS real-time monitoring and any volcanic unrest, as markets resolve on verified epicenters hitting the magnitude threshold before the deadline. Unpredictable nature of tectonics underscores the wisdom of crowds pricing in tail risks.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady seismic risks worldwide, with no major M7.0+ quakes reported in the past 30 days following the August 29 Mariana Islands M7.3 event. Global plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire remain active, driving baseline probabilities based on historical averages of 12-20 such events annually per USGS data. Recent quiet periods have tempered short-term odds, but upticks in foreshocks or swarm activity in high-risk zones—such as Japan, Indonesia, or the U.S. West Coast—could shift sentiment rapidly. Key to watch: USGS real-time monitoring and any volcanic unrest, as markets resolve on verified epicenters hitting the magnitude threshold before the deadline. Unpredictable nature of tectonics underscores the wisdom of crowds pricing in tail risks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 91%, followed by "April 30" at 82%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" is "May 31" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 82%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.