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Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

$1,496,022 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026
Polymarket

$1,496,022 Vol.

Polymarket

Italy

$330,620 Vol.

77%

DR Congo

$4,301 Vol.

69%

Turkey

$100,645 Vol.

68%

Sweden

$144,833 Vol.

65%

Denmark

$40,360 Vol.

62%

Iraq

$2,904 Vol.

53%

Bolivia

$6,843 Vol.

48%

Czechia

$26,804 Vol.

39%

Poland

$492,330 Vol.

36%

Jamaica

$2,035 Vol.

35%

Kosovo

$8,368 Vol.

34%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

$5,490 Vol.

23%

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States occupy three of 48 spots in the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, joined by 39 other qualified teams including powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, and England alongside debutants Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. UEFA group winners like Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and the Netherlands secured direct berths, while recent March 26 play-off semifinals advanced Bosnia & Herzegovina over Wales via penalties, Italy's 2-0 win against Northern Ireland, Sweden's 3-1 defeat of Ukraine, Czech Republic's penalty shootout victory past Republic of Ireland, and others to finals on March 31 for four additional UEFA places. Inter-confederation semifinals saw Jamaica beat New Caledonia 1-0 and Bolivia top Suriname 2-1, positioning them against DR Congo and Iraq for the last two spots, with trader consensus hinging on these high-stakes knockout results amid form and home advantage factors.

Hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States occupy three of 48 spots in the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, joined by 39 other qualified teams including powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, and England alongside debutants Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. UEFA group winners like Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and the Netherlands secured direct berths, while recent March 26 play-off semifinals advanced Bosnia & Herzegovina over Wales via penalties, Italy's 2-0 win against Northern Ireland, Sweden's 3-1 defeat of Ukraine, Czech Republic's penalty shootout victory past Republic of Ireland, and others to finals on March 31 for four additional UEFA places. Inter-confederation semifinals saw Jamaica beat New Caledonia 1-0 and Bolivia top Suriname 2-1, positioning them against DR Congo and Iraq for the last two spots, with trader consensus hinging on these high-stakes knockout results amid form and home advantage factors.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States occupy three of 48 spots in the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, joined by 39 other qualified teams including powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, and England alongside debutants Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. UEFA group winners like Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and the Netherlands secured direct berths, while recent March 26 play-off semifinals advanced Bosnia & Herzegovina over Wales via penalties, Italy's 2-0 win against Northern Ireland, Sweden's 3-1 defeat of Ukraine, Czech Republic's penalty shootout victory past Republic of Ireland, and others to finals on March 31 for four additional UEFA places. Inter-confederation semifinals saw Jamaica beat New Caledonia 1-0 and Bolivia top Suriname 2-1, positioning them against DR Congo and Iraq for the last two spots, with trader consensus hinging on these high-stakes knockout results amid form and home advantage factors.

Hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States occupy three of 48 spots in the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, joined by 39 other qualified teams including powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, and England alongside debutants Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan. UEFA group winners like Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and the Netherlands secured direct berths, while recent March 26 play-off semifinals advanced Bosnia & Herzegovina over Wales via penalties, Italy's 2-0 win against Northern Ireland, Sweden's 3-1 defeat of Ukraine, Czech Republic's penalty shootout victory past Republic of Ireland, and others to finals on March 31 for four additional UEFA places. Inter-confederation semifinals saw Jamaica beat New Caledonia 1-0 and Bolivia top Suriname 2-1, positioning them against DR Congo and Iraq for the last two spots, with trader consensus hinging on these high-stakes knockout results amid form and home advantage factors.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netherlands" at 100%, followed by "Belgium" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is "Netherlands" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Belgium" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.