US intelligence agencies' March 19 assessment that China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027—and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at 93.5% against an invasion by September 30, reflecting sustained deterrence amid bolstered Taiwanese defenses. Taiwan's parliament advanced stalled $9 billion US arms packages on March 13, with further sales confirmed on track by March 26, enhancing anti-invasion capabilities despite Beijing's rhetorical vows of "unstoppable" reunification from Xi Jinping's late-2025 address. No major PLA exercises have occurred in the Taiwan Strait since January, though Taipei remains wary of potential exploitation of US Middle East distractions; late escalations like sudden military mobilizations could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$112,470 Vol.
$112,470 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$112,470 Vol.
$112,470 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 19 assessment that China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027—and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at 93.5% against an invasion by September 30, reflecting sustained deterrence amid bolstered Taiwanese defenses. Taiwan's parliament advanced stalled $9 billion US arms packages on March 13, with further sales confirmed on track by March 26, enhancing anti-invasion capabilities despite Beijing's rhetorical vows of "unstoppable" reunification from Xi Jinping's late-2025 address. No major PLA exercises have occurred in the Taiwan Strait since January, though Taipei remains wary of potential exploitation of US Middle East distractions; late escalations like sudden military mobilizations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$112,470Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 19 assessment that China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027—and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at 93.5% against an invasion by September 30, reflecting sustained deterrence amid bolstered Taiwanese defenses. Taiwan's parliament advanced stalled $9 billion US arms packages on March 13, with further sales confirmed on track by March 26, enhancing anti-invasion capabilities despite Beijing's rhetorical vows of "unstoppable" reunification from Xi Jinping's late-2025 address. No major PLA exercises have occurred in the Taiwan Strait since January, though Taipei remains wary of potential exploitation of US Middle East distractions; late escalations like sudden military mobilizations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$112,470Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence agencies' March 19 assessment that China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027—and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at 93.5% against an invasion by September 30, reflecting sustained deterrence amid bolstered Taiwanese defenses. Taiwan's parliament advanced stalled $9 billion US arms packages on March 13, with further sales confirmed on track by March 26, enhancing anti-invasion capabilities despite Beijing's rhetorical vows of "unstoppable" reunification from Xi Jinping's late-2025 address. No major PLA exercises have occurred in the Taiwan Strait since January, though Taipei remains wary of potential exploitation of US Middle East distractions; late escalations like sudden military mobilizations could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes