Chinese military exercises "Joint Sword-2024B" around Taiwan on October 14-15, involving over 100 aircraft and warships in blockade simulations, followed President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech rejecting subordination to Beijing, but de-escalated without further escalation signals. This reinforces trader consensus pricing no invasion by December 31, 2027, at 79.5%, driven by formidable US deterrence via arms sales and Taiwan Relations Act commitments, logistical barriers to amphibious assault highlighted in wargames, and China's economic pressures favoring coercion over costly conflict. Ongoing PLA modernization and diplomatic posturing persist, with US election outcomes potentially influencing cross-strait dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$147,348 Vol.
$147,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Gana un 4%
Sí
$147,348 Vol.
$147,348 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Gana un 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$147,348Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$147,348Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Chinese military exercises "Joint Sword-2024B" around Taiwan on October 14-15, involving over 100 aircraft and warships in blockade simulations, followed President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech rejecting subordination to Beijing, but de-escalated without further escalation signals. This reinforces trader consensus pricing no invasion by December 31, 2027, at 79.5%, driven by formidable US deterrence via arms sales and Taiwan Relations Act commitments, logistical barriers to amphibious assault highlighted in wargames, and China's economic pressures favoring coercion over costly conflict. Ongoing PLA modernization and diplomatic posturing persist, with US election outcomes potentially influencing cross-strait dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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