The US and Israel continue large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military assets, nuclear sites, and leadership—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026—with recent explosions in Tehran and power cuts to energy infrastructure driving the conflict into its fifth week. Iran retaliated two days ago with ballistic missiles on a Saudi air base, injuring 15 US troops, while Houthis fired on Israel; Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia intercepted hundreds of projectiles defensively but eye offensive strikes if energy facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signal readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles and drones. Stalled US ceasefire talks focus on nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, as Pentagon eyes ground operations; traders watch for coalition expansions or de-escalation before April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$472,320 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
26%
UAE
20%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Qatar
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Jordan
6%
France
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$472,320 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$77,887 Vol.
26%
UAE
$41,437 Vol.
20%
Bahrain
$836 Vol.
8%
Kuwait
$1,273 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$727 Vol.
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,483 Vol.
6%
Jordan
$926 Vol.
6%
France
$148,533 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$15,006 Vol.
4%
Oman
$340 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,483 Vol.
3%
Germany
$76,390 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel continue large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military assets, nuclear sites, and leadership—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026—with recent explosions in Tehran and power cuts to energy infrastructure driving the conflict into its fifth week. Iran retaliated two days ago with ballistic missiles on a Saudi air base, injuring 15 US troops, while Houthis fired on Israel; Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia intercepted hundreds of projectiles defensively but eye offensive strikes if energy facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signal readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles and drones. Stalled US ceasefire talks focus on nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, as Pentagon eyes ground operations; traders watch for coalition expansions or de-escalation before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volumen
$472,320Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel continue large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military assets, nuclear sites, and leadership—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026—with recent explosions in Tehran and power cuts to energy infrastructure driving the conflict into its fifth week. Iran retaliated two days ago with ballistic missiles on a Saudi air base, injuring 15 US troops, while Houthis fired on Israel; Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia intercepted hundreds of projectiles defensively but eye offensive strikes if energy facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signal readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles and drones. Stalled US ceasefire talks focus on nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, as Pentagon eyes ground operations; traders watch for coalition expansions or de-escalation before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$472,320Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Israel continue large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military assets, nuclear sites, and leadership—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026—with recent explosions in Tehran and power cuts to energy infrastructure driving the conflict into its fifth week. Iran retaliated two days ago with ballistic missiles on a Saudi air base, injuring 15 US troops, while Houthis fired on Israel; Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia intercepted hundreds of projectiles defensively but eye offensive strikes if energy facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signal readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles and drones. Stalled US ceasefire talks focus on nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access, as Pentagon eyes ground operations; traders watch for coalition expansions or de-escalation before April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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