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Política·Países Bajos

¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?

Market icon
Política·Países Bajos

¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?

VVD + CDA + D66 100.0%

PVV + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66 <1%

Polymarket

$70,359,348 Vol.

VVD + CDA + D66 100.0%

PVV + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 <1%

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66 <1%

Polymarket

$70,359,348 Vol.

PVV + JA21

$1,594,757 Vol.

No

PVV + VVD + JA21

$1,150,612 Vol.

No

PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66

$1,194,469 Vol.

No

Título del grupo: PVV + VVD

$3,261,470 Vol.

No

PVV + CDA

$3,311,752 Vol.

No

PVV + VVD + D66

$6,830,276 Vol.

No

PVV + CDA + JA21

$2,386,869 Vol.

No

PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21

$2,576,739 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

$1,994,279 Vol.

No

Título del grupo: PVV + VVD + CDA

$1,906,464 Vol.

No

PVV + CDA + D66

$2,845,799 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: PVV + VVD + CDA + D66

$1,256,970 Vol.

No

VVD + JA21

$685,772 Vol.

No

VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

$993,780 Vol.

No

VVD + D66

$617,171 Vol.

No

VVD + CDA + D66

$1,208,010 Vol.

Sí

GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA

$368,853 Vol.

No

PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66

$5,894,192 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: GL/PvdA + D66

$122,972 Vol.

No

Otro

$1,091,369 Vol.

No

VVD + CDA + JA21

$14,367,772 Vol.

No

VVD + CDA

$4,104,643 Vol.

No

CDA + D66

$507,273 Vol.

No

Título del elemento de grupo: GL/PvdA + VVD

$572,742 Vol.

No

GL/PvdA + VVD + D66

$1,188,766 Vol.

No

PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA

$4,282,070 Vol.

No

GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA

$841,322 Vol.

No

GL/PvdA + CDA

$1,268,920 Vol.

No

GL/PvdA

$1,262,591 Vol.

No

Sin coalición para el 31 de octubre

$669,634 Vol.

No

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
Volumen
$70,359,348
Fecha de finalización
Oct 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 15, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. For example: If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”. If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No". If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 30 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "VVD + CDA + D66" con 100%, seguido de "PVV + JA21" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?" ha generado $70.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Oct 15, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?", explora los 30 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?" es "VVD + CDA + D66" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "PVV + JA21" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué coalición formará el próximo gobierno holandés?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.