Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's ballistic missile and drone infrastructure since late February, Tehran has conducted retaliatory kinetic strikes on US military facilities across the Gulf region and a Saudi airbase as recently as March 28, wounding American troops, while Iranian-backed Houthis escalated with missile attacks on Israel. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC spokesmen have vowed continued assaults on bases in Gulf host nations and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly welcoming US naval presence there as targets. Pakistan prepares to host de-escalation talks, but President Trump's hints at seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal signal potential further escalation before April 30 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$89,162 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Al Zour Refinery
38%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
38%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
37%
Ras Tanura
34%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
27%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
22%
East–West Pipeline
21%
Safaniya Field
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
9%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$89,162 Vol.
Al Zour Refinery
$2,845 Vol.
38%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$7,235 Vol.
38%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$14,058 Vol.
37%
Ras Tanura
$9,196 Vol.
34%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$10,186 Vol.
27%
Ruwais Refinery
$9,440 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$882 Vol.
22%
East–West Pipeline
$5,180 Vol.
21%
Safaniya Field
$2,585 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,957 Vol.
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$5,346 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,601 Vol.
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$15,242 Vol.
9%
Burj Khalifa
$409 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's ballistic missile and drone infrastructure since late February, Tehran has conducted retaliatory kinetic strikes on US military facilities across the Gulf region and a Saudi airbase as recently as March 28, wounding American troops, while Iranian-backed Houthis escalated with missile attacks on Israel. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC spokesmen have vowed continued assaults on bases in Gulf host nations and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly welcoming US naval presence there as targets. Pakistan prepares to host de-escalation talks, but President Trump's hints at seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal signal potential further escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$89,162Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's ballistic missile and drone infrastructure since late February, Tehran has conducted retaliatory kinetic strikes on US military facilities across the Gulf region and a Saudi airbase as recently as March 28, wounding American troops, while Iranian-backed Houthis escalated with missile attacks on Israel. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC spokesmen have vowed continued assaults on bases in Gulf host nations and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly welcoming US naval presence there as targets. Pakistan prepares to host de-escalation talks, but President Trump's hints at seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal signal potential further escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$89,162Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's ballistic missile and drone infrastructure since late February, Tehran has conducted retaliatory kinetic strikes on US military facilities across the Gulf region and a Saudi airbase as recently as March 28, wounding American troops, while Iranian-backed Houthis escalated with missile attacks on Israel. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC spokesmen have vowed continued assaults on bases in Gulf host nations and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly welcoming US naval presence there as targets. Pakistan prepares to host de-escalation talks, but President Trump's hints at seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal signal potential further escalation before April 30 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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